Chicago Bulls

The 2024-25 Chicago Bulls were a fascinating contradiction: an offense that could score on anybody and a defense that couldn't stop anybody. Chicago posted a 39-43 record, finishing 9th in the Eastern Conference and 4th in the Central Division — just outside the play-in tournament and stuck in the NBA's most frustrating tier: too good to tank, too flawed to contend. It was the latest chapter in the Bulls' multi-year identity crisis, a season that ultimately forced the front office's hand at the trade deadline.

The numbers painted a split personality. The offense was electric: 117.8 PPG (6th in the NBA), powered by the 2nd-fastest pace in the league (102.8), elite 36.7% three-point shooting (4th), and 47.0% from the field (8th). Chicago moved the ball beautifully — 29.1 APG (5th) — and hit the boards hard at 45.9 RPG (3rd). But the defense was a sieve: 119.4 opponent PPG (28th), a 115.6 defensive rating (18th), and a -1.5 net rating (20th) that told the truth about a team that outscored opponents in highlight reels and got outscored on the scoreboard. The 80.9% free throw shooting (3rd) was a silver lining, but you can't free-throw your way to the playoffs when you're hemorrhaging points on the other end.

The defining moment was the trade deadline. With Zach LaVine putting up 24.0 PPG on 51.1% FG and 44.6% from three in just 42 games, the Bulls finally pulled the trigger: LaVine was shipped to Sacramento in a three-team deal that brought back Tre Jones, Kevin Huerter, and Zach Collins plus full control of their own 2025 first-round pick. It was the clearest signal yet that the front office had stopped chasing the middle and was pivoting toward the future — even if the present still looked maddeningly competent on offense.

Chicago's 39-43 record left them on the outside of the play-in tournament, finishing 9th in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls were in the play-in conversation for much of the season, but a late-season slide after the LaVine trade — an expected consequence of gutting your best scorer mid-year — dropped them below the cut line. The final five weeks saw Chicago go 8-14 as the roster adjusted to life without its most dynamic offensive weapon.

The absence of postseason basketball is the cost of the front office's decision to prioritize the future over the present. By trading LaVine and securing their draft pick, the Bulls effectively chose long-term asset accumulation over a one-and-done play-in appearance. Given the ceiling of a LaVine-led Bulls team — a first-round exit at best — it was the right call. The 2024-25 season served its purpose: it proved that Josh Giddey, Coby White, and Matas Buzelis can be foundational pieces, and it freed the franchise from the LaVine contract that had defined (and constrained) the roster for years.

The individual performances told the story of a team in transition. Zach LaVine was phenomenal in his 42 games before the trade — a career-best 44.6% from three on legitimate volume — proving he was still an elite scorer when healthy. Coby White continued his emergence as a legitimate starting guard, Josh Giddey proved the OKC trade was a win for Chicago, and Matas Buzelis showed exactly why the Bulls drafted him 11th overall, playing all 80 games as a rookie.

Giddey's arrival via the OKC trade was the most consequential roster move of the pre-deadline season. His 14.6/8.1/7.2 stat line was the definition of all-around production — a 6'8" point guard who can rebound, playmake, and now shoot the three (37.8%, a career high). Vucevic continued to be a reliable double-double producer and reinvented himself as a stretch-five, hitting 40.2% from three — an absurd number for a traditional center. Buzelis was the quiet story: playing all 80 games as a 19-year-old and shooting 36.1% from deep showed a player who can contribute immediately while his ceiling remains miles above his current production.

The Bulls' offseason was defined by consolidation, not revolution. After the LaVine trade blew up the old identity at the deadline, GM Marc Eversley spent the summer locking in the new core and adding versatile pieces around them. The Josh Giddey extension (4yr/$100M) was the headline — a clear statement that the 22-year-old Australian is the franchise's point-forward of the future. The Lonzo Ball-for-Isaac Okoro swap added a proven defensive wing, while the Noa Essengue draft pick at No. 12 gives Chicago a high-upside project with elite physical tools.

The Giddey extension is the most telling move. At $25M/year, Chicago is betting that Giddey's unique skill set — a 6'8" guard who averaged 14.6/8.1/7.2 — will continue to develop, and that his shooting improvement (37.8% from three, up from 33% career) is sustainable. It's a fair market deal that could look like a steal if Giddey reaches his All-Star ceiling, or an albatross if the shooting regresses. The Okoro acquisition addresses the team's most glaring weakness: perimeter defense. Okoro's career as a lockdown wing in Cleveland makes him the ideal complement to Chicago's offense-first backcourt.

Noa Essengue at No. 12 is the swing pick. The 18-year-old French forward (6'10", 7'1" wingspan) averaged 12.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 1.4 SPG in European pro ball with a 56% FG. The three-point shot is a work in progress (29% in Europe), but the defensive tools, athleticism, and motor draw Pascal Siakam comparisons. He's not an immediate contributor, but if the development team does its job, Essengue could be the most impactful player from this offseason within two years.

The 2025-26 Bulls are a pace-and-space transition team with a developing identity: fast, young, skilled offensively, and questionable defensively. The post-LaVine, post-DeRozan era is fully underway, with Josh Giddey as the engine, Coby White as the scorer, Nikola Vucevic as the veteran anchor, and a collection of wings and forwards who will determine whether this roster is a play-in contender or a lottery team.

Projected Starting Lineup

This starting five is built on skill and versatility over star power. Giddey and White form one of the more intriguing backcourts in the East — a 6'8" playmaker who sees the game three passes ahead and a scoring guard who can create his own shot and knock down threes. Okoro provides the defensive identity this team desperately lacked last season: a wing who can guard 1-through-3 and take the toughest perimeter assignment nightly. Buzelis at the four is the swing factor — if his rookie-year three-point shooting (36.1%) holds and his defense improves, this lineup has legitimate balance. Vucevic at center gives Chicago a floor-spacer who can operate in the high post, roll to the rim, and stretch defenses with his 40% three-point stroke.

Key Bench Players

The bench has more depth than the starters might suggest. Kevin Huerter averaged 12.8 PPG after arriving from Sacramento and gives Chicago instant offense off the pine — his catch-and-shoot ability is tailor-made for Giddey's drive-and-kick game. Tre Jones is a stabilizing backup PG who won't wow you with stats but won't turn the ball over or make bad decisions. Ayo Dosunmu and Patrick Williams are the wildcards — both are entering critical contract years and need to prove they belong in the long-term plans. Dosunmu's 49.2% FG is impressive, but injuries limited him to 46 games; Williams' 39.7% shooting was disappointing for a former No. 4 pick.

Coaching & Scheme

Billy Donovan enters his 6th season as head coach, and this is the most pivotal year of his tenure. With the LaVine and DeRozan eras officially over, Donovan must build a coherent identity around the young core — and the early returns suggest he's leaning into what works. The offense will run at a breakneck pace (Chicago was 2nd in pace last season), emphasizing transition scoring, early-offense threes, and Giddey-driven ball movement through post-split actions and cutting schemes. Defensively, the addition of Okoro and the length of Buzelis/Essengue allows Donovan to deploy more switching and physicality. The question is whether he'll give the young players — especially Buzelis and Essengue — enough runway to develop, or revert to his tendency to lean on veterans. This is Donovan's roster now. If the Bulls stagnate, the coaching seat gets very warm.

Projection systems see the 2025-26 Bulls as a below-.500 team in a weak Eastern Conference middle class — good enough to be competitive nightly, not good enough to make the playoffs without significant development leaps. The range of outcomes is compressed: a floor of ~28 wins (if Vucevic is traded and injuries hit) and a ceiling of ~38 (if everything clicks).

The 33.5 win total is the sharper number and the one bettors should focus on. The over requires Giddey to prove the $100M extension was justified, White to sustain 20+ PPG as the No. 1 scorer, and the defense to improve from its 28th-ranked opponent PPG. The under is a bet on the LaVine-sized scoring void being unfillable, a potential mid-season Vucevic trade disrupting chemistry, and the Eastern Conference's middle tier (Detroit, Indiana, Toronto, Atlanta) all being better-positioned than Chicago.

The Betting Angle: Chicago at +500,000 to win the championship is a misprint, not a bet — do not touch it. The +100,000 to win the Central Division is dead money with Cleveland at -100000. The real action is on the win total: the over 33.5 is live if Giddey, White, and Buzelis all take collective steps forward and the defense improves with Okoro in the fold. The under is the sharper play if you believe the scoring void left by LaVine and DeRozan is too large to overcome. At these prices, the Bulls are a stay-away in the futures market and a win total under lean unless you see a defensive transformation.

The Central Division has become a two-tier structure with an emerging third wave. At the top, Cleveland is the undisputed king — the Cavaliers posted the best record in the Eastern Conference last season and return virtually everyone. Their offensive juggernaut is built around Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen, and the division odds reflect their dominance (-100000 is essentially "yes, they're winning this"). Detroit has emerged as the division's most exciting story: Cade Cunningham's All-Star leap, Jaden Ivey's development, and a 46.5-win projection make the Pistons a legitimate top-4 seed in the East.

Milwaukee remains dangerous as long as Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the roster, but the trade rumors, aging supporting cast, and injury history have pushed the Bucks from perennial contender to uncertain playoff team. Indiana was poised for a Finals return before Tyrese Haliburton's Achilles injury devastated their outlook — without their franchise point guard, the Pacers project as a low-seed play-in team rather than a championship contender.

Chicago occupies the fifth slot in the division, and the gap is significant. The 20+ win difference between the Bulls and Cleveland is enormous, and even the gap to Indiana (37.5 projected wins) represents a meaningful tier separation. The silver lining: Chicago's young core is younger than Detroit's was two years ago, and the Pistons' trajectory from 14-win laughingstock to 46-win contender in three seasons is exactly the path the Bulls are hoping to replicate. For now, the goal isn't to win the division — it's to close the gap with Indiana and establish themselves as the Central's emerging fourth team.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Bulls exceed, meet, or fall short of their 33.5-win projection — and whether the post-LaVine rebuild gains traction or stalls.