Denver Nuggets

The 2024-25 Denver Nuggets were an offensive juggernaut — the best offense Nikola Jokić has ever quarterbacked, and arguably the most efficient half-court attack in the NBA. Denver finished 50-32, good for 4th in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Northwest Division behind the powerhouse Oklahoma City Thunder. This was a team built to outscore you, not stop you — and the scoreboard backed it up every night.

The numbers were staggering. Denver posted 120.8 PPG (3rd), a 119.9 offensive rating (4th), and shot a league-best 50.6% from the field. The ball movement was historic: 31.0 APG ranked 1st in the NBA and 3rd-highest in league history. They hit 37.6% from three (5th) and led the league in paint points (58.5), fast-break points (20.1), and at-rim shot frequency. The problem was on the other end — a 116.0 defensive rating (22nd) and 116.9 opponent PPG (25th) meant Denver had to outscore its problems nightly. The +3.9 net rating (9th) tells the story: elite offense, porous defense, and a team that won games through sheer firepower at a brisk 99.8 pace (8th).

The individual story was, as always, Nikola Jokić. His 29.6 PPG / 12.7 RPG / 10.2 APG triple-double average cemented another MVP-caliber campaign — the kind of season that would win the award in most years. Jamal Murray found his rhythm with 21.4 PPG and 6.0 APG, while Christian Braun emerged as a legitimate two-way starter (15.4 PPG on 58.0% FG). The supporting cast — Michael Porter Jr. (18.2 PPG), Aaron Gordon (14.7 PPG), and Russell Westbrook off the bench (13.3 PPG) — gave Denver the depth to survive the regular season grind despite Gordon missing 31 games due to injury.

Denver's postseason was a tale of grit and heartbreak. The Nuggets survived a grueling first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, winning 4-3 in a series that featured three road wins and a dominant 120-101 Game 7 closeout at Ball Arena. Jokić was magnificent throughout, averaging a near-triple-double, and Murray showed flashes of the "Playoff Jamal" magic that fueled the 2023 championship run.

The Western Conference Semifinals against Oklahoma City was a war. Denver took Game 1 on the road (121-119) and battled back from a devastating 149-106 Game 2 loss to push the series to seven games. But the Game 7 collapse — a 93-125 blowout in OKC — exposed the Nuggets' fatal flaw: when the defense couldn't get stops against elite competition, the offense alone wasn't enough. The Thunder's depth and defensive pressure overwhelmed Denver down the stretch, and the season ended with the bitter realization that the 2023 championship core was running out of time.

The exit raised existential questions. Was the window closing? Could Denver fix the defense without sacrificing the offense? And could the front office make the bold moves necessary to get Jokić back to the Finals before Father Time comes calling? The 2025 offseason would provide the answers.

The Nuggets' roster was defined by Jokić's brilliance and the uneven contributions around him. The starting five was elite when healthy, but Aaron Gordon's 31-game absence and Jamal Murray's inconsistent health meant Denver rarely had its best lineup for extended stretches. The bench, led by Westbrook's energy and Strawther's shooting, was serviceable but lacked the defensive punch needed in the postseason.

Jokić was, once again, the best player in basketball. His 29.6/12.7/10.2 triple-double average on 57.6% FG and 41.7% from three was historically efficient — a line that puts him in conversation with the greatest individual seasons ever. Murray's 21.4 PPG with 6.0 APG showed he remains a legitimate co-star, but his 67 games played raises durability concerns that haunt the franchise every April. Braun's emergence was the biggest positive development — his 15.4 PPG on 58.0% shooting (the highest FG% among qualified guards) proved he's a cornerstone piece, not just a role player. Porter Jr.'s 18.2 PPG on excellent efficiency was valuable, but the front office ultimately decided his $35M salary could be better allocated — a decision that would define the offseason.

New GM Ben Tenzer and new head coach David Adelman inherited a franchise at a crossroads — and they responded with surgical precision. The headline trade sent Michael Porter Jr. and an unprotected 2032 first-round pick to Brooklyn for Cam Johnson, a move that sacrificed long-term scoring for cap flexibility and a better two-way fit. The Jonas Valančiūnas acquisition from Sacramento (for Dario Šarić) finally gave Jokić a reliable backup center. And the veteran minimum signings of Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. filled the bench holes that were exposed in the playoff loss to OKC.

The MPJ-for-Cam Johnson trade is the defining move of Denver's offseason. Porter averaged 18.2 PPG on elite efficiency, but his $35.8 million salary was the team's biggest financial burden behind Jokić. Johnson provides 39.0% three-point shooting, better perimeter defense, and critically, ~$17M in cap savings that allowed Denver to sign Brown and Hardaway. The analytics community is split: MPJ's raw scoring output is higher, but Johnson's 3-and-D profile may be a better fit next to Jokić, Murray, and Gordon.

The Bruce Brown reunion is arguably the sneakiest signing of the NBA offseason. Brown was a critical piece of the 2023 championship team — a switchable, high-IQ defender who can guard 1-through-4 and make winning plays. His return on a minimum deal is the kind of move contenders dream about. Valančiūnas solves the backup center problem that has plagued Denver for years — a veteran rebounder and post scorer who can hold the fort while Jokić rests. And Hardaway Jr. adds the off-the-bench shooting that Westbrook's departure left behind.

The 2025-26 Nuggets are a retooled contender with championship DNA: Jokić remains the NBA's best player, Murray is his battle-tested co-star, and the supporting cast has been upgraded for defensive versatility and bench depth. The coaching change from Michael Malone to David Adelman adds an element of uncertainty, but also the promise of fresh energy and tactical adjustments. This roster is built to compete for a title — not in two years, but right now.

Projected Starting Lineup

This is one of the most versatile starting fives in the NBA. Every starter shot above 39% from three last season — giving Jokić the spacing he needs to dissect defenses from the post and high elbow. The defensive upgrade is significant: replacing MPJ with Cam Johnson and pairing him with Gordon and Braun gives Denver three switchable, willing perimeter defenders. The concern is scoring volume: MPJ's 18.2 PPG on 50.4% FG doesn't grow on trees, and Johnson will need to maintain his Brooklyn production in a smaller role alongside Jokić and Murray.

Key Bench Players

The bench is dramatically improved from last season. Bruce Brown is the most impactful addition — a switchable wing who can guard four positions, make reads in the short roll, and play winning basketball in the fourth quarter. He did it for Denver's championship run in 2023, and his return immediately raises the team's defensive floor. Valančiūnas gives Adelman something Malone never had: a legitimate backup center who can rebound, score in the post, and keep Jokić's minutes manageable during the regular season. Hardaway Jr. provides the microwave scoring Denver lost when Westbrook departed — a career 36% three-point shooter who can torch second units. Watson and Strawther represent the developmental upside, with Watson's athleticism and defensive versatility making him a potential rotation breakout.

Coaching & Scheme

David Adelman takes over as head coach after the departure of Michael Malone, the architect of Denver's 2023 championship. Adelman, promoted from lead assistant, inherits a team that already has an established offensive identity — the Jokić-centric system that produces the NBA's best ball movement and most efficient half-court attack. The offense won't change dramatically; Jokić will remain the hub, running pick-and-rolls with Murray, finding cutters, and orchestrating from the post and high elbow. What Adelman promises to bring is defensive accountability and tactical flexibility. With the addition of Johnson, Brown, and the emergence of Braun, Denver has the personnel to switch 1-through-4 for the first time since the championship season. Adelman has also indicated he'll expand the bench rotation during the regular season — using Valančiūnas strategically to keep Jokić fresh for April. The coaching change is the biggest wild card of Denver's season: Adelman has the right players and the right system, but first-year head coaches in the Western Conference face an unforgiving learning curve.

Projection systems see the 2025-26 Nuggets as a 53-55 win team and a legitimate championship contender — second in the West behind only OKC, with a deep playoff run expected. The improved bench and defensive personnel suggest this team should be better in April than the 2024-25 version, even if the regular-season win total is similar.

The 53.5 win total is the sharpest line on the board. The over requires the defensive improvements (Johnson, Brown) to translate immediately and for Gordon to play 70+ games. The under is a bet on the coaching transition causing early-season turbulence and on the MPJ-to-Johnson swap costing more offensive firepower than the defense gains. At 50-32 last season with a weaker bench, 53-54 wins with a deeper roster feels right — but the Western Conference is a gauntlet.

The Betting Angle: Denver at +650 to win the championship is legitimate value for a team with the best player in basketball, a proven playoff co-star, and championship experience. The +400 Northwest Division odds are tricky — OKC is a juggernaut, and the gap between 1st and 2nd in this division may be 8+ wins. The win total over 53.5 at -125 is the best play if you believe the bench upgrades add 3-4 wins over last season's pace. Jokić at +450 for MVP is always worth a look — he's been the best player in the world for three straight years, and the only question is voter fatigue. For a contender of this caliber, the futures prices are remarkably attractive.

The Northwest Division is the best division in basketball at the top and the most separated at the bottom. OKC is the class of the conference — the defending champions with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a 62-win projection, and the deepest roster in the West. They are the clear division favorite at -400 and the team Denver must find a way to dethrone. Denver occupies the second tier — a legitimate championship contender with the best individual player in the sport, but likely 8-10 games behind OKC in the standings. Minnesota rounds out the contender class, with Anthony Edwards ascending to superstardom and Rudy Gobert anchoring a top-5 defense.

The division's bottom half is a stark contrast. Portland is in the middle of an exciting rebuild behind Deni Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan, but the 34-36 win projection puts them firmly in lottery territory. Utah at 18-20 projected wins is deep in the tank — Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton represent the future, but the present is bleak. For Denver, the division schedule is both a blessing (easy wins against Portland and Utah) and a curse (a combined 8 games against OKC and Minnesota that will define seeding). The Nuggets' goal is clear: hold the 2-seed and avoid falling into a first-round matchup with OKC or Minnesota.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Nuggets can win the championship — or fall short again in the Western Conference gauntlet.