Indiana Pacers

The 2024-25 Indiana Pacers exceeded every external expectation and delivered the most thrilling season in franchise history since the Reggie Miller era. Finishing 50-32 — good for 4th in the Eastern Conference and 2nd in the Central Division — this was a team that ran opponents off the floor with an elite, up-tempo attack orchestrated by All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Rick Carlisle's pace-and-space system turned Indiana into one of the most entertaining teams in the league, and the results followed.

The offense was the engine: 117.4 PPG (7th), a 116.5 offensive rating (7th), and 48.8% shooting (3rd in the NBA) powered by Haliburton's elite playmaking and Pascal Siakam's efficient scoring. The Pacers ranked 3rd in assists (29.2 APG) and 3rd in fewest turnovers (13.2 TOV/G) — a lethal combination of ball movement and ball security at a blistering 99.9 pace (7th). The defense was middling at 114.3 defensive rating (13th), but the overall +2.2 net rating (12th) was enough to fuel a deep playoff run that nobody saw coming.

The statistical profile told the story of a team with a clear identity: run, share, shoot efficiently, and outscore you. The 48.8% field goal shooting was the third-best mark in the NBA, a testament to Carlisle's emphasis on high-percentage looks and Haliburton's ability to create easy baskets for everyone around him. The defensive shortcomings were real — 17th in opponent PPG, middling rim protection — but they were masked by the sheer volume of offense Indiana produced. When you score 117 a night, you don't need to be elite defensively. You just need to be good enough.

Indiana's 2025 postseason was a historic, heart-stopping run that ended one game shy of the franchise's first NBA championship. The Pacers stormed through the Eastern Conference bracket with a fearlessness that stunned the basketball world.

The first three rounds were a masterclass. Indiana dispatched Milwaukee in 5 games, then stunned the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in 5 — a series in which Haliburton averaged 24+ points and 11+ assists. The Eastern Conference Finals against New York was an all-time classic, featuring a 138-135 overtime thriller in Game 1 that set the tone for a six-game series the Pacers controlled. By the time Indiana reached the NBA Finals, the narrative had shifted from "Cinderella" to "legitimate contender."

The Finals against Oklahoma City were a war of attrition. Indiana took Game 1 on the road (111-110), traded blows through six games, and forced a Game 7 in OKC. Then disaster struck: Tyrese Haliburton, who had been playing through a calf strain since Game 5, tore his right Achilles tendon in the first quarter of the decisive game. Without their engine, the Pacers fought valiantly but fell 103-91. The Thunder celebrated a championship; Indiana was left with heartbreak — and the knowledge that they were one healthy quarter away from a title.

The Pacers' roster was built on balance, pace, and positional versatility. Pascal Siakam led the team in scoring with a career-efficient 20.2 PPG on 51.9% shooting, while Haliburton was the undisputed offensive engine — his 9.2 APG ranked 3rd in the NBA and his gravity made everyone around him better. Myles Turner provided elite rim protection and floor spacing (39.6% 3P for a center), and Bennedict Mathurin established himself as a legitimate third scoring option.

Siakam's first full season in Indiana was everything the front office hoped for: 20+ points on 51.9% shooting with the versatility to play as a primary or secondary creator. He and Haliburton developed an elite two-man game that ranked among the league's most efficient pairings. Mathurin's year-3 leap (16.1 PPG) showed a player growing into a reliable third scorer with the shot-making ability to close games. Turner's 15.6 PPG with 39.6% from three was a unicorn stat line for a center — his departure to Milwaukee leaves a massive void in rim protection and floor spacing that will be nearly impossible to replicate.

Nembhard proved his worth as a high-IQ two-way guard, particularly in the playoffs where his poise and defensive toughness were critical. Nesmith was one of the league's best 3-and-D players when healthy (43.0% from three), though he missed 37 games. The depth — Toppin's energy, McConnell's spark — was the secret sauce that made Indiana's bench a weapon.

The Pacers' offseason was defined by one devastating reality: Tyrese Haliburton's torn Achilles will keep the franchise cornerstone out for the entire 2025-26 season. Compounding the blow, Myles Turner — Indiana's rim protector, floor-spacing center, and longest-tenured Pacer — signed with Milwaukee in free agency. GM Chad Buchanan and the front office faced a crossroads: tank or tread water. They chose to compete, filling gaps with depth and development while awaiting Haliburton's return.

The headline move was the reacquisition of Indiana's own 2026 first-round pick from New Orleans, sending out the No. 23 pick and Mojave King. This was a bet-hedging masterstroke: if 2025-26 goes sideways without Haliburton, Indiana now controls its own lottery destiny. The Jay Huff trade from Memphis fills Turner's starting center role with a cheaper, younger alternative who can stretch the floor with his three-point shooting.

The Isaiah Jackson re-signing (3yr/$21M with Achilles injury protection) keeps a high-upside, athletic center on the roster who can provide rim-running and shot-blocking. The Nesmith extension signals the organization's belief in his 3-and-D profile as a long-term starter. The overall strategy is clear: don't mortgage the future, stay competitive, develop the next wave, and build around a healthy Haliburton returning in 2026-27.

The 2025-26 Pacers are a Finals hangover team without their best player. That's the cold reality. Last year's run proved that Haliburton-Siakam-Turner was a championship-caliber core. Now two of those three pillars are gone — one to injury, one to free agency — and Indiana must reinvent itself on the fly. The identity shifts from "elite offense powered by a generational playmaker" to "collective effort built on depth, defense, and Siakam's versatility."

Projected Starting Lineup

Rick Carlisle confirmed this five during training camp. Nembhard steps into the impossible task of replacing Haliburton's playmaking — he's a fundamentally sound, defensive-minded guard, but the 29.1% three-point shooting is a spacing concern. Mathurin moves into the starting backcourt with a green light and a mandate to become a 20+ PPG scorer. Nesmith's shooting (43.0% from three) is essential for floor spacing. Siakam transitions from co-star to franchise alpha — his 51.9% shooting and playmaking make him the clear No. 1 option. Huff is the wild card at center: a floor-spacing big who can stretch defenses, but a significant downgrade from Turner's two-way excellence.

Key Bench Players

The bench has legitimate NBA depth, which is Indiana's lifeline. McConnell is one of the best backup point guards in the league — his energy, defensive pressure, and playmaking (4.4 APG) will be even more critical without Haliburton. Toppin provides explosive athleticism and transition scoring that fits Carlisle's pace-and-space system. Isaiah Jackson's return from his own Achilles rehab adds another athletic center option behind Huff. Jarace Walker, the No. 5 pick in 2023, enters year two with a mandate to prove he belongs in the rotation — his defensive versatility could earn him meaningful minutes.

Coaching & Scheme

Rick Carlisle enters his 4th season in his second stint as Pacers head coach — and this may be his most impressive coaching challenge yet. The architect of Indiana's NBA Finals run, Carlisle transformed a middling franchise into a pace-and-space juggernaut built on "organized chaos": fast-break offense, hit-ahead passes, and a green light for transition threes. Now, without Haliburton's otherworldly playmaking, Carlisle must reinvent the system. Expect the pace to remain high — Carlisle has stated the Pacers will still "play hard, fast, smart" — but the half-court offense will shift toward Siakam isolation scoring, more Nembhard-Siakam pick-and-roll, and committee-based shot creation. The defensive emphasis will increase significantly: Carlisle has acknowledged that "defensive consistency can be there on a night-to-night basis" in a way that volatile offensive shot-making cannot. This team will need to grind out wins that last year's squad simply outscored.

Projection systems and sportsbooks agree: the 2025-26 Pacers are a fringe playoff team in transition — a significant step back from last year's Finals run, but not a full-scale rebuild. The range of outcomes is wider than almost any team in the league, hinging on whether Siakam can carry a No. 1 option burden and whether the depth can compensate for the loss of two cornerstones.

The 37.5 win total is the most interesting number on the Pacers' board. The over requires Siakam to carry a top-15 offensive load, Mathurin to make a star turn, and the defense to improve from 13th to top-10 without Turner. The under is a bet on the Haliburton-sized crater in playmaking being too large for a committee approach to fill. Last season, Haliburton's on/off differential was among the highest in the NBA — the Pacers were a +8.1 net rating with him on the floor and a -3.5 without him. That 11.6-point swing doesn't just go away.

The Betting Angle: Indiana at +12,500 to win the championship is dead money without Haliburton. The +3,500 to win the Central Division is a dart throw behind Cleveland and Detroit. The real action is on the win total: Under 37.5 at -120 looks like the sharp play. Losing your best player (Haliburton) and your second-best defender (Turner) typically costs 10-15 wins. Indiana won 50 last year — 37.5 implies a 12.5-win drop, which may actually be conservative. The play-in at ~35-40% implied probability is about right — Indiana has the depth to hang around the 9-10 seed, but 42+ wins (needed for the 7-8 range) is a stretch. Mathurin MIP at +2500 is the best value prop on the board.

The Central Division is a two-tier structure in 2025-26. Cleveland is the clear class of the division — the Cavaliers won 64 games last year, retained their core, and added Lonzo Ball. Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley form the best two-way tandem in the East. Detroit has emerged as a legitimate playoff team behind Cade Cunningham's All-Star ascent, and Milwaukee — despite losing Damian Lillard — still has Giannis Antetokounmpo, who alone is worth 45+ wins. These three teams are all projected for 45+ wins and playoff berths.

Indiana drops from 2nd in the division to a projected 4th — a fall that almost entirely maps to the Haliburton injury and Turner departure. The Pacers' 38-43 win projection slots them into the play-in conversation but well behind the top three. The gap between Indiana and Milwaukee (roughly 7-8 wins) is significant but not insurmountable if things break right. Below Indiana, Chicago at 33-39 is in a full youth development cycle with Giddey, White, and lottery pick Buzelis. The Pacers should comfortably avoid the division basement, but finishing higher than 4th requires an overperformance scenario.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Pacers exceed, meet, or fall short of their 37.5-win projection — and whether Indiana remains a playoff-caliber team without its franchise point guard.