LA Clippers

The 2024-25 LA Clippers were better than anyone expected. After losing Paul George to the 76ers the previous summer, the prevailing narrative was regression. Instead, the Clippers posted a 50-32 record — good for 5th in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Pacific Division — proving that James Harden, Norman Powell, and an elite defense could carry a team missing Kawhi Leonard for most of the season.

The defense was the story. LA posted a 110.3 defensive rating (3rd in the NBA) and held opponents to just 108.2 PPG (4th). The offense was more workmanlike — 112.9 PPG (20th) and a 115.1 offensive rating (14th) — but the shooting efficiency was elite: 48.2% from the field (6th) and 37.3% from three (7th). The result was a strong +4.7 net rating (5th), built on a methodical, half-court identity at a deliberate 97.5 pace (22nd). This was a Tyronn Lue team through and through — defense-first, scheme-heavy, and relentlessly prepared.

The individual performances told the story of a team greater than the sum of its parts. James Harden orchestrated the offense with 22.8 PPG and 8.7 APG, proving that at 35, he's still one of the NBA's premier playmakers. Norman Powell was arguably the league's most efficient scorer — 21.8 PPG on 48.4% FG and 41.8% from three — a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year-caliber performer who started most games. Ivica Zubac became a double-double machine (16.8 PPG / 12.6 RPG) and the defensive anchor. When Kawhi Leonard was healthy, the Clippers looked like a title contender — he averaged 21.5 PPG on 49.8% FG in just 37 games, a reminder of his two-way dominance and the cost of his absence.

The Clippers entered the playoffs as the 5th seed and drew a brutal first-round matchup against the 4th-seeded Denver Nuggets — a series that would go the full seven games and ultimately end LA's season in heartbreaking fashion.

The series was a microcosm of the Clippers' identity: ferocious defense, gutsy performances, and ultimately not quite enough firepower. The Game 3 blowout (117-83) was the best game of the Clippers' season — a defensive masterclass. But the Game 7 collapse in Denver (101-120) exposed the gap between a very good team and a championship one. Kawhi Leonard's 39-point Game 2 was a reminder of what this franchise looks like at full strength. The reality is that Denver's depth and Nikola Jokić's brilliance were simply too much across a seven-game series. Still, taking the Nuggets to seven as a 5-seed — with Kawhi limited to 37 regular-season games — was a testament to Lue's coaching and the roster's resilience.

The Clippers' success was built on depth, shooting efficiency, and defensive versatility. Harden was the engine, Powell was the flamethrower, Zubac was the anchor, and the role players — Jones Jr., Dunn, Bogdanović — filled every gap. Leonard's limited availability (37 games) forced others to step up, and they delivered.

Harden's renaissance continued — his 22.8 PPG and 8.7 APG made him one of the most productive point guards in the league at 35. The narrative that he's washed has been definitively refuted, though his 41.0% FG reflects a game increasingly reliant on step-backs, threes, and free throws rather than drives. Powell's departure to Miami via the John Collins trade leaves a massive efficiency void — his 48.4% FG / 41.8% 3P combination was among the best in the NBA. Zubac's emergence as a 16.8/12.6 player cemented him as one of the league's most underrated centers. And when Kawhi was on the floor, the Clippers' net rating jumped to elite levels — the perennial "what if" of this franchise.

GM Lawrence Frank went all-in on the veteran arms race this offseason. The philosophy was clear: maximize the remaining championship window around Kawhi Leonard and James Harden by surrounding them with proven, playoff-tested talent. The result is arguably the oldest — and deepest — roster in the NBA, a collection of former All-Stars, champions, and battle-tested veterans that reads like an All-Decade team.

The Norman Powell-for-John Collins trade is the most consequential move. Powell was the Clippers' most efficient scorer — losing his 48.4% FG / 41.8% 3P production hurts. Collins brings a different dimension: lob threat, pick-and-roll athleticism, and floor-spacing at the 4 (career 36.1% from three). It's a lateral move at best, a downgrade at worst — but Collins fills a positional need and pairs well with Zubac in a way Powell could not.

The Bradley Beal signing is the highest-upside gamble. Beal's last two seasons have been disappointing — injuries and inconsistency plagued his Phoenix tenure — but at his best, he's a 25+ PPG scorer with elite shot-creation ability. If Beal can stay healthy and embrace a complementary role, the Clippers' second-unit scoring goes from adequate to lethal. The Chris Paul homecoming adds a steadying hand: a 40-year-old future Hall of Famer who can run a bench unit, mentor the young players, and close games with his cerebral floor generalship. Brook Lopez gives Lue a rim-protecting center who can space the floor — a perfect backup to Zubac and a weapon in small-ball lineups.

The 2025-26 Clippers are a win-now roster built for the playoffs — veteran-heavy, scheme-versatile, and designed to peak in April and May. This team won't blow you away with pace or athleticism, but they will outthink you, out-execute you, and grind you down with switching defense and half-court mastery. The margin for error is health — and everything hinges on whether Kawhi Leonard can finally give this franchise a full season.

Projected Starting Lineup

This starting five is a defense-first, half-court execution unit. Harden orchestrates the offense, Leonard is the best two-way player on the roster when healthy, Collins provides pick-and-roll verticality, Zubac anchors the paint, and Dunn locks up opposing guards. The concern is perimeter shooting: without Powell's 41.8% from three, the spacing thins considerably. Collins and Dunn aren't knockdown shooters, meaning defenses can pack the paint against Harden's drives and Zubac's post-ups. The counter? Bradley Beal off the bench — if Lue staggers Beal and Harden so that one is always on the floor, the second unit becomes a scoring juggernaut.

Key Bench Players

This might be the deepest bench in the NBA. Beal, Paul, Lopez, Bogdanović, Jones Jr., and Batum give Lue an absurd number of lineup combinations. The second unit of Paul / Beal / Bogdanović / Jones Jr. / Lopez features three former All-Stars, two elite shooters, and switchable defense across every position. The risk is age — this bench averages over 34 years old — but the IQ, experience, and skill level is unmatched. If Lue manages minutes correctly and the bodies hold up, this is a team that can go 10 deep in the playoffs without a significant drop-off.

Coaching & Scheme

Tyronn Lue enters his 6th season as head coach and has quietly become one of the best tacticians in the league. His defensive schemes — anchored by switching, aggressive help-side rotations, and relentless closeouts — turned the 2024-25 Clippers into the 3rd-best defense in the NBA despite Kawhi's absence. Offensively, Lue runs a read-and-react system that maximizes Harden's playmaking: heavy pick-and-roll action, pindowns for shooters, and Zubac as a short-roll hub. With the additions of Collins, Beal, and Lopez, Lue now has the flexibility to go big (Zubac + Collins), small (Batum at the 5), or shooting-heavy (Lopez at the 5 with four shooters). His load management of Leonard will be the most scrutinized coaching decision in the league — get it right, and Kawhi arrives in April healthy. Get it wrong, and the championship window slams shut.

Projection systems see the 2025-26 Clippers as a solidly playoff-bound team with dark-horse upside — a consensus mid-to-high 40s win team in a conference loaded with contenders. The range of outcomes is wide, reflecting the Kawhi health variable and the age-related regression risk of a roster with an average age above 30.

The 47.5 win total is the sharpest line. The over requires Kawhi to play 55+ games, Harden to sustain his 22/8 production at 36, and the new additions (Collins, Beal, Lopez) to integrate seamlessly into Lue's system. The under is a bet on Father Time — this roster has more combined NBA seasons than any in league history, and the Western Conference doesn't offer rest games. The 3-win regression from last year's 50-win pace is already priced in; the question is whether it's enough.

The Betting Angle: At +30,000 to win the championship, the Clippers are a classic boom-or-bust futures play. If Kawhi plays 65+ games and Beal rediscovers his All-Star form, this team has a legitimate path to the Conference Finals — and at 300-to-1, that's significant value. The Pacific Division at +2500 is interesting given the Lakers and Warriors are also in the 47-49 win range — any of the three could win it. The real money is on the win total over 47.5 at -125 if you believe the depth will survive the regular season and the defense will remain elite. The under is the sharp play only if you think Kawhi misses 30+ games again.

The Pacific Division is a three-horse race at the top. The Lakers, armed with Luka Dončić and LeBron's championship desperation, are the betting favorites. The Warriors, after acquiring Jimmy Butler III and pairing him with Curry, have arguably their deepest roster since 2019. And the Clippers sit in the third slot — the most veteran-laden of the three, the deepest from positions 1 through 10, but also the oldest and most injury-prone.

What separates the Clippers from the Lakers and Warriors is certainty. The Lakers know what they have with Dončić. The Warriors know Curry can still orchestrate an elite offense. The Clippers don't know if Kawhi will play 40 or 70 games — and that uncertainty is the difference between +250 and +2500 to win the division. Below the big three, Sacramento is retooling and Phoenix is rebuilding — neither will challenge for the division crown. For the Clippers, the goal isn't just making the playoffs — it's securing homecourt advantage in the first round, which likely requires 50+ wins in a conference this deep.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Clippers are a first-round exit, a Conference Finals team, or a legitimate championship contender — and whether the aging-core experiment was genius or folly.