Memphis Grizzlies

The 2024-25 Memphis Grizzlies delivered a 48-34 campaign that proved this franchise's competitive window is still open — even if the postseason revealed how far they remain from the conference's elite. After a lost 2023-24 season marred by Ja Morant's suspension and injuries across the roster (27-55), Memphis surged back with a 21-win improvement that ranked among the NBA's best year-over-year turnarounds. They finished 8th in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Southwest Division, clawing through the play-in tournament to earn a postseason berth.

The engine was pace and volume. Memphis led the league in pace (103.3, 1st) and ranked 2nd in scoring at 121.7 PPG — an offensive machine that bludgeoned opponents in transition. The 117.7 offensive rating (6th) and +4.7 net rating (6th) were elite, and the defense surprised at a 113.0 defensive rating (10th) anchored by Jaren Jackson Jr.'s rim protection. The tradeoff was turnovers — 15.7 per game (26th) — a byproduct of the breakneck tempo. The shooting was efficient: 47.9% FG (5th), 36.7% from three (8th), and 78.6% FT (13th). The rebounding was dominant at 47.3 RPG (3rd), and the ball movement generated 28.4 APG (5th).

The individual stories told the comeback tale. Ja Morant returned from his 25-game suspension carryover and a torn labrum to average 23.2 PPG and 7.3 APG in 50 games — electric when available, but "when available" remained the qualifier. Jaren Jackson Jr. anchored both ends with 22.2 PPG on 48.8% FG and 37.5% from three across 74 games, confirming his status as a two-way franchise cornerstone. Desmond Bane delivered a career-best 19.2/6.1/5.3 line before the offseason trade to Orlando. The depth was real: Santi Aldama (12.5 PPG), rookie Jaylen Wells (10.4 PPG, All-Rookie), and Scotty Pippen Jr. (9.9 PPG, 4.4 APG) all contributed beyond expectations.

Memphis navigated the play-in tournament with a split — a 121-116 loss to Golden State followed by a decisive 120-106 victory over Dallas to clinch the No. 8 seed. The reward: a date with the No. 1 overall seed Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Game 1 obliteration (80-131) was historic — the worst opening-game defeat in NBA playoff history. Memphis looked shellshocked, and the 51-point margin exposed the gap between a talented-but-inconsistent 8 seed and the league's most complete team. Games 3 and 4 at FedExForum were more competitive — the Grizzlies lost by 6 and 2, respectively — but the damage was done. The sweep confirmed what the regular season hinted at: Memphis has the talent to be dangerous but lacks the depth, defensive consistency, and postseason experience to challenge the Western Conference's true contenders.

The postseason exposed two critical vulnerabilities: Morant's durability (he played through the series but looked compromised) and half-court offense execution against elite defenses. OKC's switching scheme neutralized Memphis's transition game and forced them into isolation possessions they couldn't sustain over a seven-game series. These are the problems the offseason needed to address.

The Grizzlies' 2024-25 roster was top-heavy but surprisingly deep. Morant and Jackson Jr. combined for 45.4 PPG when both were available, and the supporting cast punched above its weight class. The emergence of Jaylen Wells as an All-Rookie wing and Scotty Pippen Jr. as a reliable backup point guard gave Memphis hope that the next generation is ready to contribute. The losses of Desmond Bane (traded to Orlando) and Marcus Smart (traded to Washington midseason) remove two key veterans from the equation heading into 2025-26.

Jackson Jr. was the team's most reliable player — 74 games, elite two-way production, and a 37.5% clip from three that stretched defenses and opened driving lanes for Morant. His 22.2 PPG on 48.8% FG confirmed he's a franchise cornerstone worth the max extension. Morant's 23.2/7.3 line in 50 games was vintage Ja — explosive, creative, impossible to contain in transition — but the 50-game ceiling is the recurring problem. He's played just 79 games across the last three seasons, and the franchise's championship window depends entirely on his availability.

Bane's departure is the biggest loss. His 19.2 PPG on 48.4% FG and 39.2% from three represented elite spacing, secondary playmaking, and reliable shot creation — exactly the things Memphis will miss most. Aldama's breakout (12.5/6.4/2.9 on 36.8% from three) made him the most efficient stretch-big on the roster, and Wells showed the poise and shooting touch of a future starter. Edey's 8.3 RPG as a rookie hint at a dominant rebounder who simply needs more court time to develop.

GM Zach Kleiman orchestrated a bold retool this offseason, pivoting from the original Morant-Bane-JJJ "Big Three" construct toward a more flexible, draft-capital-rich model. The Desmond Bane trade to Orlando was the centerpiece — a calculated bet that future assets and positional versatility outweigh the immediate production of a 20-PPG scorer. The midseason Marcus Smart trade to Washington cleared cap space and signaled a new direction. The coaching change — Tuomas Iisalo replacing Taylor Jenkins — was the final piece of a franchise-wide reset.

The Bane trade is the most consequential move. Memphis sacrificed 19.2 PPG and their best floor spacer (39.2% from three) for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (veteran 3-and-D wing, championship pedigree), a lottery pick that became Cedric Coward, and a haul of future first-round picks. It's a clear win-later move — the Grizzlies are banking on Coward's development and the pick capital to either develop homegrown talent or execute another franchise-altering trade in the future.

The JJJ max extension signals who Memphis is building around. The Aldama re-signing (3yr/$52.5M) rewards his breakout and keeps the best stretch-big in the building. Ty Jerome (3yr/$27.6M) adds shot creation and playmaking depth that the roster desperately needs after losing Bane and Smart. And the coaching change to Tuomas Iisalo — a championship-winning European coach who emphasizes speed, connectivity, and defensive pressure — brings a fresh philosophical approach to a roster in transition.

The 2025-26 Grizzlies are a high-variance team in transition: still built around Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., but retooled with younger, more versatile pieces after trading Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart. The ceiling is a top-6 seed and home-court advantage in the first round. The floor — if Morant's health fails again — is a lottery team. Everything hinges on availability and how quickly Iisalo's system takes hold.

Projected Starting Lineup

This is a fascinating starting five. Morant-JJJ remains one of the most dynamic duos in the NBA when healthy — Morant's transition speed and JJJ's shooting/rim protection create a unique two-man game. Caldwell-Pope replaces Bane's shot creation with championship-tested defense and floor spacing. Wells steps into a larger role as a sophomore after an All-Rookie campaign. And Edey — the 7'4" center — gives Memphis a physically imposing rim presence that they lacked in the playoff series against OKC. The concern is obvious: spacing. Without Bane's 39.2% from three, the floor is tighter, and Morant's 30.9% three-point shooting puts pressure on everyone else to compensate.

Key Bench Players

The bench is deeper than it appears. Pippen Jr. is the most important reserve — his 9.9/4.4 line with 39.7% three-point shooting gives Memphis a legitimate backup point guard who can run the offense when Morant sits. Aldama is a matchup weapon who can play the 4 or 5 and stretch the floor with his 36.8% from deep. Cedric Coward is the wild card — the No. 11 pick is a raw but tantalizing two-way wing whose development could define whether this retool succeeds. Jerome adds veteran shot creation, and Williams Jr. provides defensive versatility.

Coaching & Scheme

Tuomas Iisalo takes over as head coach after a successful interim stint at the end of 2024-25 — the franchise's first Finnish-born coach and a decorated European tactician. Iisalo won back-to-back Bundesliga Coach of the Year awards in Germany, captured the 2023 FIBA Champions League with Bonn, and led Paris Basketball to the EuroCup championship with the competition's best offense and an unprecedented 25-game winning streak. His mantra: "Speed kills."

The system is built on relentless pace, defensive pressure, and connectivity. Iisalo's Memphis will push the ball harder than Jenkins's already-fast squads, emphasize transition defense turning into transition offense, and demand constant ball and player movement in the half-court. The European influence shows in the defensive scheme: aggressive switching, full-court pressure, and an emphasis on turning defensive stops into easy baskets. Ja Morant has called Iisalo's practices "the most intense I've experienced" — a telling endorsement from a player who thrives at maximum speed. The scheme perfectly fits the roster's athletic profile: Morant's explosiveness, JJJ's versatility, Edey's rim presence, and a wing corps built for switchable defense.

Projection systems see the 2025-26 Grizzlies as a play-in team with playoff upside — a reflection of the talent ceiling (Morant + JJJ is a top-10 duo when healthy) vs. the availability floor (Morant has played 79 games across the last three seasons). The Bane trade costs them roughly 5-7 wins of immediate production, but the range of outcomes is extraordinarily wide.

The 39.5 win total is the sharpest line on the board — and it's essentially a referendum on Ja Morant's health. If Morant plays 65+ games, Memphis is a 44-46 win team and a legitimate top-6 seed. If he misses 30+ games again, the Grizzlies are looking at 34-36 wins and a lottery trip. There is very little in-between. The over (-125) is juiced slightly, reflecting the market's belief that the talent is there if the bodies hold up.

The Betting Angle: Memphis at +15000 to win the championship is a long shot with a whiff of value — you're betting on a fully healthy Morant-JJJ pairing, which the league has barely seen for two years. The +1100 to win the Southwest Division is interesting but requires Houston to collapse, which seems unlikely with Durant. The real play is the win total over 39.5 at -125 — the Grizzlies won 48 games last year, and while they lost Bane, they return their two best players, added a capable starter in KCP, and have a coaching upgrade in Iisalo. The over needs Morant to play ~60 games and JJJ to stay healthy. That's not a certainty, but it's a reasonable bet.

The Southwest Division is Houston's to lose. The Rockets added Kevin Durant to an already-loaded roster — with Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, and now KD, Houston is a legitimate Finals contender and the overwhelming division favorite at -210. San Antonio is the most intriguing team in the division: Victor Wembanyama plus De'Aaron Fox is a franchise-altering pairing, and the Spurs' ceiling is a top-4 seed if everything clicks. Dallas is retooling around Cooper Flagg (the No. 1 overall pick) and a revamped roster after the Kyrie Irving era.

Memphis occupies a fascinating middle ground — they're the third or fourth-best team in a five-team division, but the gap between their floor and ceiling is the widest in the group. At +1100, the division odds reflect the reality that Houston needs to collapse for Memphis to win the Southwest, which is unlikely. But the Grizzlies' talent ceiling is higher than Dallas's and potentially competitive with San Antonio's. If Morant plays 65+ games, Memphis is in the 42-44 win range and fighting for a top-6 seed. If his health fails again, they're competing with the Pelicans for the basement. That volatility is the defining feature of this team.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Grizzlies are a legitimate playoff contender or a lottery-bound team in transition — and whether the Bane trade was genius or premature.