New Orleans Pelicans

The 2024-25 New Orleans Pelicans were a catastrophe. After a promising 49-33 campaign in 2023-24 that included a playoff berth, the franchise cratered to 21-61 — a stunning 28-win regression that ranks among the worst collapses in modern NBA history. They finished 14th in the Western Conference and dead last in the Southwest Division, gutted by injuries to every meaningful player on the roster and a mid-season trade that signaled a full-scale organizational reset.

The numbers were ugly across the board. New Orleans posted 109.8 PPG (25th) with a 110.4 offensive rating (26th) and an abysmal 119.9 defensive rating (29th). The -9.5 net rating (29th) told the complete story: this was a team that couldn't score efficiently and couldn't stop anyone. The shooting was pedestrian — 44.7% FG (24th), 34.8% from three (25th) — and the roster was in constant flux as injuries mounted and the front office began dealing away veterans.

The injury carnage was historic. Zion Williamson was limited to just 30 games — continuing a pattern that has defined his career. Dejounte Murray, acquired in a blockbuster summer trade from Atlanta, played only 31 games before suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon in January. Herb Jones, the team's best perimeter defender, managed just 20 games. Brandon Ingram was traded to Toronto at the deadline after ankle issues limited his availability. By March, the Pelicans were running out G League-level lineups. The one silver lining: rookie center Yves Missi played 73 games and flashed legitimate starting-caliber talent, and Trey Murphy III emerged as a bonafide 20+ PPG scorer in his expanded role.

The Pelicans' 21-61 record left them firmly in the NBA's basement, 20 games out of even the play-in tournament. This was never a postseason team — it was a survival exercise. By the All-Star break, New Orleans had already been eliminated from realistic playoff contention, and the front office pivoted to asset accumulation and youth development.

The fall from grace was breathtaking. Just one year earlier, this franchise went 49-33, earned a playoff berth, and had genuine optimism about building a contender around Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Instead, the 2024-25 season became a cautionary tale about what happens when a franchise bets on health and loses catastrophically. The 28-win regression was the largest single-season drop in Pelicans/Hornets franchise history, and the resulting organizational overhaul — from the front office to the roster — means 2025-26 is essentially a reset year with a drastically different roster.

The season was defined by what could have been. When healthy, the Pelicans' top-end talent was legitimate — Zion at 24.6 PPG on 56.7% shooting, Ingram at 22.2, Murphy at 21.2. The problem was that these players were rarely on the floor together. The cumulative games missed by the top six players exceeded 250 games, making any coherent identity or continuity impossible.

Trey Murphy III's breakout was the season's most important development. His 21.2 PPG on 45.4% FG and 36.1% from three established him as a legitimate 20+ PPG scorer and the team's most reliable offensive weapon. Yves Missi was the other bright spot — the rookie center's 9.1/8.2/1.3 BPG line in 73 games showed a young big with real NBA starter upside. Zion's per-game numbers were elite when available — his 56.7% FG is historically efficient for a 24-PPG scorer — but the 30-game ceiling tells the familiar, frustrating story. Murray's Achilles tear on January 31st was the final blow, ending the $112M investment's debut season at just 31 games and casting a shadow over the 2025-26 campaign.

The 2025 offseason was a top-to-bottom organizational overhaul. Executive VP David Griffin was fired and replaced by Joe Dumars as President of Basketball Operations, with Troy Weaver installed as GM. The new regime immediately set an aggressive, youth-oriented direction — trading away CJ McCollum, flipping trade deadline acquisitions, making a bold draft-night trade-up, and signing veteran stabilizers. The result is a roster that looks dramatically different from the one that started 2024-25.

The McCollum-for-Poole swap is the most debatable move. McCollum was a steadying veteran presence (21.1 PPG, 37.3% 3P) but at 33 years old with a declining trajectory. Poole is four years younger, averaged 20.5 PPG on 37.8% from three in Washington, and — despite his inflated contract — gives New Orleans a high-upside shot creator who fits the new youth-oriented timeline. The Saddiq Bey addition is a reclamation project: he missed all of 2024-25 with a torn ACL but was a solid 3-and-D wing before the injury.

The draft-night aggression was the most telling signal. Trading the No. 23 pick plus a future unprotected first-round pick to move up to No. 13 for Derik Queen was widely criticized as an overpay, but the new front office is clearly betting on frontcourt depth and Queen's long-term upside alongside Missi. Jeremiah Fears at No. 7 fills the most urgent need — a dynamic young point guard who can run the offense while Murray recovers from his Achilles. The Herb Jones extension at 3yr/$67M signals that the defensive identity they're building starts with him.

The 2025-26 Pelicans are a high-variance rebuild around Zion Williamson's health. The new front office has assembled a fascinating mix of young talent (Fears, Missi, Murphy, Hawkins), reclamation projects (Poole, Bey), and defensive anchors (Jones, Looney) — but everything runs through one question: can Zion stay on the floor? If he plays 65+ games, this team has play-in potential. If he plays 30 again, the lottery beckons.

Projected Starting Lineup

This starting five has elite interior scoring and rim protection but significant spacing concerns. Zion (23.1% 3P) and Missi (0.0% 3P) create a paint-heavy attack that could clog driving lanes. The perimeter trio of Fears, Poole, and Murphy must shoot well enough to keep defenses honest. When it works — Zion bulldozing in the paint with Poole and Murphy spacing the floor — this offense could be dynamic. When it doesn't, expect ugly half-court possessions against packed defenses.

Key Bench Players

The bench has intriguing depth but enormous health uncertainty. Murray's return from the Achilles — projected for January-February 2026 — is the most impactful mid-season addition in the NBA. If he returns at even 80% of his pre-injury level (17.5 PPG, 7.4 APG), the Pelicans essentially add an All-Star caliber player for the second half push. Herb Jones is one of the NBA's best defensive wings when healthy, and the extension signals long-term belief. Saddiq Bey is a wildcard — before the ACL tear, he was a solid 15 PPG wing. Kevon Looney brings championship pedigree and physicality to the frontcourt rotation behind Missi.

Coaching & Scheme

Willie Green enters his 4th season as head coach, and this may be the most pivotal year of his tenure. After the organizational overhaul, Green must integrate a dramatically new roster while managing Zion's minutes, developing a rookie PG, and keeping the locker room positive through what could be another difficult season. Green's strength has always been his defensive identity and player relationships — he earned respect during the 49-win 2023-24 campaign, and the front office's decision to retain him signals belief that the coaching wasn't the problem last year. The scheme should emphasize transition offense (where Zion and Fears can thrive), switching defense (leveraging Jones' and Murphy's versatility), and paint dominance with the Zion-Missi frontcourt. The half-court offense will be the challenge — Green needs Poole and Murphy to generate enough perimeter gravity to prevent defenses from collapsing on Zion every possession.

Projection systems see the 2025-26 Pelicans as a bottom-tier Western Conference team with second-half upside — a roster that could look very different in March than it does in October, assuming Murray returns healthy and Zion stays on the court. The range of outcomes is enormous, driven almost entirely by health variables.

The 30.5 win total at BetMGM is the key number. The over requires Zion to play 60+ games, Murphy to sustain his breakout, Poole to fit seamlessly, and Murray to return as a meaningful contributor by February. The under is a bet on the Pelicans' injury history repeating itself — and frankly, recent history gives the under the edge. New Orleans hasn't had its top three players healthy for a full month since 2022-23.

The Betting Angle: New Orleans at +500,000 to win the championship is not a bet — it's a donation. The +100,000 to win the Southwest Division is dead money in a division headlined by Houston, Memphis, and Dallas. The real action is the win total: over 30.5 at -120 is interesting if you believe the Murray mid-season return transforms this team and Zion has a "healthy" season by his standards (55+ games). The under 30.5 at +100 is the sharper play — three of Zion's five NBA seasons have ended at or below 30 wins, and starting the year without Murray makes October-December a potential 8-25 stretch that buries the over. Player props are where the value lives: Trey Murphy III scoring props and Jeremiah Fears Rookie of the Year at long odds are worth a look.

The Southwest Division is stacked and unforgiving. Houston is the clear favorite after adding Kevin Durant to an already deep, young roster — the Rockets project as a 53-55 win team and legitimate championship contender. Memphis has championship-caliber talent when Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are healthy, and the Grizzlies' 45-49 win projection reflects their ceiling. Dallas enters a new era built around Cooper Flagg and retooled veterans, while San Antonio is the league's most exciting young team with Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox.

New Orleans sits firmly in fifth place — and the gap is substantial. The Pelicans' 30-33 projected wins trail even the Spurs by 8-14 wins, making them the clear division basement dwellers. The path to relevance runs through 2026-27 at the earliest, assuming Zion stays healthy, Murray recovers fully, and the young core (Murphy, Missi, Fears) develops on schedule. For now, the Pelicans are the Southwest's development project, hoping the talent coalesces faster than the market expects. The one saving grace: if everything breaks right in the second half, a late-season push into the 35-38 win range isn't impossible — just unlikely.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Pelicans exceed, meet, or fall short of their 30.5 win projection — and whether the franchise's long-term trajectory remains viable.