Phoenix Suns

The 2024-25 Phoenix Suns were supposed to be a contender. Instead, they were a cautionary tale. The Kevin Durant–Devin Booker–Bradley Beal "Big Three" experiment collapsed under the weight of injuries, defensive ineptitude, and a roster that never found cohesion under first-year head coach Mike Budenholzer. Phoenix finished 36-46, their worst record since 2018-19, placing 11th in the Western Conference — one spot outside the play-in tournament — and last in the Pacific Division.

The offense wasn't the problem. Phoenix posted a 116.2 offensive rating (10th in the NBA), fueled by Durant's efficient scoring and Booker's playmaking leap to 7.1 assists per game. The team shot 47.8% from the field (13th) and 37.8% from three (9th), ranking among the league's best shooting teams. But the defense was catastrophic — a 119.3 defensive rating (28th) that turned every game into a shootout Phoenix couldn't consistently win. The -3.1 net rating (23rd) told the story of a team that could score with anyone but couldn't stop anyone. A 97.1 pace (25th) meant Phoenix played slow, which only magnified the defensive breakdowns in half-court settings.

The season was defined by what-ifs. Durant missed 20 games to various injuries, and when he played, he was brilliant — 26.6 PPG on 52.7% shooting and 43.0% from three, arguably his most efficient season ever on a per-game basis. But Beal played just 53 games, Nurkic was inconsistent and injured, and the lack of a true point guard left the offense reliant on Booker's creation and Durant's isolation scoring. The brightest spot was Ryan Dunn, the rookie wing who emerged as a legitimate defensive stopper and earned 74 games of rotation trust at just 21 years old. The lesson was clear: elite offensive talent means nothing without defensive structure, roster balance, and health.

Phoenix's 36-46 record left them one game outside the play-in tournament, finishing 11th in the Western Conference. The Suns were eliminated from postseason contention in the final week of the regular season, a gut-wrenching outcome for a franchise that entered the year with championship aspirations and a payroll exceeding $200 million.

The failure to qualify marks the second consecutive year Phoenix has missed the playoffs after their 2023 Western Conference Semifinals appearance. The front office responded with a franchise-altering overhaul: trading Kevin Durant, buying out Bradley Beal, firing Mike Budenholzer, and pivoting from "win now" to a youth-oriented retool around Devin Booker. The 2024-25 season didn't just end Phoenix's championship window — it shattered it, forcing a complete reimagining of what this franchise looks like going forward.

The individual talent was never in question — the fit was the problem. Kevin Durant was superb when healthy but couldn't stay on the floor. Devin Booker made a real leap as a playmaker with 7.1 APG. Bradley Beal was productive when available but played just 53 games, and his massive contract became an albatross. The supporting cast — Tyus Jones, Royce O'Neale, Jusuf Nurkic — was solid but lacked the defensive identity to compensate for the stars' two-way limitations.

Durant's 26.6 PPG on 52.7/43.0/85.6 shooting splits were historically efficient for a player his age — a reminder that he remains one of the greatest scorers ever, even at 36. But availability is the best ability, and his 62 games were simply not enough. Booker's evolution into a true point guard (7.1 APG, career-high) was the most encouraging development — proof that he can be the offensive engine of a contender if surrounded by the right pieces. Beal's 53-game season at $50M+ was the biggest disappointment, and his buyout this summer signals that the front office has moved on. The surprise of the year was Ryan Dunn, whose defensive versatility (0.6 STL, 0.5 BLK in 19 minutes) and 74 games of rookie durability earned him a projected starting role going forward.

This was the most consequential offseason in Phoenix Suns history since the Charles Barkley trade. Owner Mat Ishbia and GM James Jones tore the roster down to the studs, trading the franchise's best player, buying out its most expensive contract, firing the head coach after one season, and pivoting to a youth-and-development model built around Devin Booker. The seven-team Kevin Durant trade was the centerpiece — sending KD to Houston in exchange for Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Khaman Maluach (No. 10 pick), and five second-round picks. The return prioritizes upside over immediate production.

The Booker extension (2yr/$145M) is the foundation. At 28, Booker is in his prime and the franchise has made it clear: this is his team now, without the compromise of fitting around another superstar. The Jalen Green acquisition is the highest-upside move — a 23-year-old who averaged 21.0 PPG and played all 82 games in Houston. Green's explosive scoring paired with Booker's playmaking creates a dynamic backcourt, though the defensive fit is a genuine question. Mark Williams (15.3 PPG / 10.2 RPG with Charlotte) gives Phoenix the rim-protecting, rebounding center they've lacked for years.

The Beal buyout was painful but necessary. Phoenix will carry approximately $19.4M per year in dead money for five seasons — a steep price for a failed experiment. But the cap relief allows Phoenix to duck under the luxury tax aprons and regain access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and trade flexibility. The coaching change from Budenholzer to Jordan Ott signals a desire for a fresh voice — Ott comes from the Cleveland Cavaliers' coaching staff and has the endorsement of both Booker and Suns legend Steve Nash. At just 38 years old, Ott represents a new generation of coaching in Phoenix.

The 2025-26 Suns are a transition team in every sense: transitioning from the Durant era to the Booker era, from a top-heavy superteam to a balanced roster, from a win-now mentality to a develop-and-compete approach. The starting five is younger, longer, and more athletic than anything Phoenix has fielded in years — and the question is whether Booker can carry this group into the play-in conversation while the young pieces develop around him.

Projected Starting Lineup

This lineup is built around balance rather than top-end stardom. Booker and Green form one of the most explosive backcourts in the league — 46.6 combined PPG from their prior seasons — but both are natural scorers, not natural defenders. The defensive burden falls to Dillon Brooks, whose reputation as one of the NBA's most tenacious perimeter defenders was validated by a career-high 39.7% from three in Houston, making him a genuine two-way contributor. Ryan Dunn at power forward is the wildcard — a second-year player with elite defensive tools but an offensive game that's still developing (31.1% 3P). Mark Williams provides the interior presence Phoenix desperately lacked in 2024-25: 10.2 RPG, rim protection, and efficient finishing around the basket.

Key Bench Players

The bench is young and unproven but intriguing. Khaman Maluach is the prize — a 7-foot center from Duke with a 7'6" wingspan, shot-blocking instincts, and the physical tools to become a foundational defensive piece. He's not ready to start, but he'll see real minutes behind Mark Williams and could develop into a future starter. Royce O'Neale is the steady veteran presence — his 40.6% three-point shooting and defensive versatility make him the most reliable bench piece on Day 1. Rasheer Fleming (No. 31 pick) adds athletic upside at the four, while Oso Ighodaro provides switchable defense in small-ball lineups. The biggest concern is the point guard position: Collin Gillespie on a minimum deal is a placeholder, not a solution, and the lack of a true backup playmaker behind Booker is a real vulnerability.

Coaching & Scheme

Jordan Ott takes over as head coach after Mike Budenholzer was fired following one disappointing season. Ott, 38, comes from the Cleveland Cavaliers' coaching staff — the same program that developed one of the NBA's best defenses and helped turn Cleveland into a 50-win juggernaut. His hiring signals a commitment to modern, two-way basketball: expect a motion-heavy offense that leverages Booker's playmaking and Green's downhill scoring, paired with a more aggressive, switching defensive scheme than Budenholzer's passive drop coverage. The key question is whether Ott can install the defensive identity that Budenholzer couldn't. With Brooks and Dunn as his defensive anchors and Williams protecting the rim, the pieces are better suited to a switching system. Ott has the endorsement of Booker, which matters — Budenholzer's inability to connect with the franchise star was a primary reason for his dismissal. If Ott can replicate even a fraction of Cleveland's defensive culture in Phoenix, this team overperforms its modest projections.

Projection systems see the 2025-26 Suns as a borderline play-in team in transition — a roster that traded championship-level talent for youth, flexibility, and a longer runway. The wide range of outcomes reflects the uncertainty of building around one star, multiple new acquisitions, and a first-year head coach.

The 31.5 win total from BetMGM is the sharpest number on the board — and it's begging to be challenged. ESPN's BPI projects ~35 wins, a full 3.5 games above the line, because the model believes Booker's star power and the addition of Green, Brooks, and Williams create a functional team that should win more than the market expects. The under is a bet on the Western Conference being too deep, the defense remaining problematic despite the roster overhaul, and a first-year coach needing time to install his system.

The Betting Angle: Phoenix at +25,000 to win the championship is a lottery ticket — the kind of longshot you only play if you believe in a playoff miracle run. The Pacific Division at +8,000 is dead money with the Lakers, Clippers, and Warriors all projecting 46+ wins. The real value is in the win total over 31.5. Phoenix has Devin Booker, a legitimate top-15 player who has never been on a team that won fewer than 34 games in a full season during his prime. The additions of Green (21 PPG) and Williams (15/10) give Booker more support than the market credits. Additionally, Phoenix's first-round pick is not their own in 2026, removing any incentive to tank. The over at -115 is the sharpest play on this board.

The Pacific Division is a three-team race at the top with two rebuilding projects chasing from behind. The Lakers are the betting favorites after acquiring Luka Doncic, creating a LeBron-Doncic pairing that might be the most talented backcourt-forward duo in NBA history — even in LeBron's age-41 season. The Clippers have quietly assembled a deep, veteran roster around Kawhi Leonard with the additions of Bradley Beal and Brook Lopez, while the Warriors remain dangerous with Jimmy Butler joining Steph Curry for one last championship push.

Phoenix occupies the fifth and final spot in the division hierarchy — a franchise in transition that traded its present for its future. The gap between Phoenix's 32-35 projected wins and the top three teams' 46-52 range is enormous, reflecting the talent drain from the Durant and Beal departures. The Kings at 34-38 projected wins are the closest competition, meaning Phoenix and Sacramento are fighting for the 4th-place consolation prize in a division where the top three are all genuine playoff teams. For Phoenix, the goal isn't to win the Pacific Division — it's to prove the retool is working while competing for a play-in spot in the broader Western Conference picture.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Suns exceed, meet, or fall short of their 31.5-35 win projection — and whether the post-Durant era has a real foundation.