Portland Trail Blazers

The 2024-25 Portland Trail Blazers were supposed to be bad. Instead, they were competitive — and the improvement was the story. After a franchise-worst 21-61 campaign in 2023-24, Portland surged to 36-46, a 15-win improvement that ranked among the largest year-over-year jumps in the NBA. They finished 12th in the Western Conference and 4th in the Northwest Division, missing the play-in tournament but establishing that the rebuild is ahead of schedule.

The offense was still a work in progress. Portland posted a 110.9 PPG (22nd) and a 111.7 offensive rating (23rd), struggling with 45.0% shooting (26th), 34.2% from three (26th), and a league-worst 16.0 turnovers per game (29th). The defense, however, showed real growth — a 114.7 defensive rating (16th) anchored by emerging two-way players. The -3.0 net rating told the truth: a team still below the break-even line, but trending in the right direction at a 98.8 pace (16th).

The individual awards told the developmental story better than the standings. Toumani Camara earned All-Defensive 2nd Team honors at just 23 years old — a legitimate 3-and-D wing who emerged as one of the NBA's best perimeter defenders. Donovan Clingan earned All-Rookie 2nd Team recognition, averaging a double-double (12.4 PPG / 11.6 RPG) and flashing the rim protection that made him the No. 7 pick. But the breakout of the year was Deni Avdija, who exploded for 24.2 PPG / 7.0 RPG / 6.7 APG — a near-All-Star line that announced Portland's No. 1 option for the foreseeable future.

Portland's 36-46 record left them four games out of the play-in tournament, finishing 12th in the Western Conference. The Blazers were never truly in the postseason conversation after a 12-22 start, but the second-half surge (24-24 after the All-Star break) hinted at a team growing into its identity.

The absence of October basketball is the expected outcome for a rebuilding franchise. What matters more is the trajectory: a 15-win improvement over 2023-24, meaningful development from the young core, and a front office that resisted the temptation to sell the future for a play-in spot. The 2024-25 season wasn't about making the playoffs — it was about proving the rebuild has a foundation. On that front, Portland delivered.

The player development was the headline. Deni Avdija went from solid starter to franchise cornerstone, Donovan Clingan looked like a future All-Star center, and Scoot Henderson showed enough flashes to keep the faith alive. The departures of Anfernee Simons (traded) and Deandre Ayton (bought out) cleared the decks for the next generation.

Avdija's leap was the single most important development of the season. His 24.2/7.0/6.7 line placed him among the NBA's most versatile wings — a point-forward who can create for himself and others while defending multiple positions. Sharpe continued to flash elite athletic upside (18.5 PPG) but the 31.1% three-point shooting remains a concern for a player asked to be a primary perimeter scorer. Simons was the team's best shooter (36.3% 3P, 90.2% FT) before the trade to Boston, and his departure leaves a significant spacing void. Clingan's double-double average (12.4/11.6) as a rookie was historic for a Trail Blazers center, and his 2.2 blocks per game hint at a future Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

GM Joe Cronin played the long game this offseason. The headline trade — Anfernee Simons to Boston for Jrue Holiday — was polarizing. Portland swapped a 25-year-old scorer for a 35-year-old defender, betting that the young core needs mentorship and defensive identity more than perimeter shot creation. The Damian Lillard signing (3yr/$42M MLE) was pure franchise sentimentality — a beloved homecoming with the understanding that Lillard will miss the entire 2025-26 season recovering from his Achilles injury.

The extensions tell the story of who Portland believes in. Sharpe (multi-year), Camara (3yr/$24M), and Rupert (3yr/$24M) are all locked up through their mid-20s — a young wing corps that could develop into one of the most versatile in the league. The draft-night maneuvering was shrewd: trading the No. 11 pick (Cedric Coward) to Memphis for the No. 16 pick (Yang Hansen) plus Orlando's 2028 first-round pick gives Portland additional future ammunition while still adding a developmental center in Hansen.

The Jrue Holiday acquisition is the most debatable move. Holiday is 35, has significant mileage, and his best days are behind him statistically. But he's a championship winner, a multi-time All-Defensive selection, and the kind of veteran presence that young locker rooms desperately need. The bet is that Holiday's IQ, defensive intensity, and professionalism will accelerate the development of Henderson, Sharpe, and the young core in ways that raw talent alone cannot.

The 2025-26 Trail Blazers are a youth development project with a clear identity: long, athletic, defensively oriented, and built around the Avdija-Sharpe-Clingan core. The absence of Damian Lillard for the entire season means there is no safety net — the young players will either sink or swim, and the results will tell Portland everything it needs to know about the next phase of the rebuild.

Projected Starting Lineup

This is one of the youngest starting fives in the NBA. Henderson (21), Sharpe (22), Avdija (24), Camara (23), and Clingan (21) average just 22.2 years old. The length is elite — Camara (6'8"), Avdija (6'9"), and Clingan (7'2") give Portland a switchable, disruptive defensive front. The concern is scoring: without Simons and with Lillard sidelined, Avdija and Sharpe must shoulder an enormous offensive burden. If Sharpe's three-point shooting doesn't improve from 31.1%, the spacing will be a problem.

Key Bench Players

The bench is thin but purposeful. Jrue Holiday is the most important reserve in the league for this team — not because of his stats, but because of what he represents. A championship winner (2021 Bucks) and multi-time All-Defensive player, Holiday's job is to stabilize units when the starters rest, close out tight games, and teach Henderson and Sharpe what winning basketball looks like. Rayan Rupert is a fascinating developmental piece — a 21-year-old wing with defensive instincts and an improving offensive game. Hansen is a long-term project at center behind Clingan.

Coaching & Scheme

Chauncey Billups enters his 5th season as head coach, and this is the most important year of his tenure. The rebuild's timeline is accelerating, and Billups must prove he can develop the young core into a cohesive unit. His defensive emphasis aligns perfectly with the roster's strengths — Portland's length and athleticism should allow Billups to deploy aggressive switching schemes and turn defense into transition offense. The challenge is the half-court offense: without elite shooting, Portland needs creative ball movement and cutting action to generate efficient looks. Billups' track record with the young players (Avdija's breakout, Camara's defensive leap, Clingan's integration) has earned him credibility. This season will determine if he's the long-term coach for the next competitive cycle.

Projection systems see the 2025-26 Trail Blazers as a below-.500 team with play-in upside — a reasonable expectation for a roster this young in a conference this deep. The range of outcomes is wide, reflecting the inherent volatility of depending on 21- and 22-year-olds for primary production.

The 34.5 win total is the sharpest number on the board. The over requires Avdija to sustain his breakout, Sharpe to take a leap, and the defense to carry this team through offensive droughts. The under is a bet on the Western Conference gauntlet grinding down a roster with no veteran scoring punch and a razor-thin bench. With Lillard out all year and Simons gone, Portland lost its two best shot creators from 2024-25.

The Betting Angle: Portland at +70,000 to win the championship is a lottery ticket, not a bet. The +20,000 to win the Northwest Division is dead money — OKC and Denver are both legitimate title contenders. The real value, if it exists, is in the win total over 34.5 if you believe the young core takes a collective leap, and in Shaedon Sharpe's MIP candidacy at +2000. The play-in at ~25-30% implied probability is about right — Portland needs to win 38-39 games to compete for the 10th seed, which requires the offense to rank above 20th. That's a real ask without Lillard or Simons.

The Northwest Division is a three-tier structure. At the top, OKC is the class of the conference — the defending champions with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a 60-win projection, and the deepest roster in the West. Denver remains dangerous behind Nikola Jokić, the best player in the world, and Minnesota has Anthony Edwards entering his MVP candidacy era. These three teams are all legitimate championship contenders.

Portland occupies the fourth tier — a rebuilding team with a clear identity and an exciting young core, but not yet ready to compete with the division's elite. The gap between Portland's 34-36 projected wins and Minnesota's 49-54 is enormous. The silver lining: Utah at 18-20 projected wins means Portland isn't the division's worst team, and the Blazers' trajectory is pointing up while Utah's is pointing down. In two to three years, if the development continues, Portland should be competing for that third division slot. For now, the goal is simple: get better every month.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Trail Blazers exceed, meet, or fall short of their 34-36 win projection — and whether the rebuild stays ahead of schedule.