Sacramento Kings

The 2024-25 Sacramento Kings were a study in contradictions — an elite offense undermined by a porous defense, a roster loaded with individual talent that never quite cohered into a team. Sacramento finished 40-42, good for 9th in the Western Conference and a spot in the play-in tournament, but ultimately fell short of making the playoffs for a second consecutive year. The season unraveled at the trade deadline when the franchise made the seismic decision to trade De'Aaron Fox to San Antonio, ending an era and signaling a new direction.

The offense was Sacramento's identity and its lifeline. The Kings posted a 116.7 offensive rating (7th in the NBA) and scored 115.7 PPG (10th), driven by the Sabonis hub offense and a stable of capable scorers. But the defense was the fatal flaw — a 116.2 defensive rating (23rd) and 115.3 opponent PPG (19th) meant Sacramento routinely gave back everything it earned. The +0.5 net rating (16th) told the story of a team barely treading water. Three-point shooting was a weakness at 34.4% (24th), though the 80.3% FT% (7th) and 47.5% FG% (12th) showed efficiency in other areas.

The coaching change midseason added further turbulence. Mike Brown, who had led the Kings to their first playoff appearance in 17 years in 2022-23, was fired after a dismal stretch and replaced by Doug Christie, the beloved former Kings guard. Christie stabilized the locker room and showed promise, but the damage was done — the Fox trade, the coaching upheaval, and an aging roster left Sacramento scrambling for an identity. Domantas Sabonis was the one constant, posting another triple-double-caliber season (19.1 / 13.9 / 6.0) with career-best efficiency (59.0% FG), while DeMar DeRozan provided steady scoring in his first year as a King (22.2 PPG).

Sacramento entered the play-in tournament as the 9th seed with a 40-42 record, needing two consecutive wins just to reach the first round. The Kings' defense — the Achilles' heel all season — was exposed under the bright lights, and they were eliminated without reaching the playoff bracket. It was a familiar ending for a franchise that has now made the postseason proper just once since 2006.

The play-in exit underscored the front office's decision to trade De'Aaron Fox at the deadline. The organization recognized that the Fox-Sabonis-DeRozan core had reached its ceiling — a fringe postseason team, but not a legitimate contender. The trade was an acknowledgment that good isn't good enough in the Western Conference, and the Kings needed to pivot toward a new construction. The 2024-25 season will be remembered not for the play-in loss, but for the franchise-altering trade that reshaped Sacramento's trajectory.

The individual performances told two stories: elite offense from the star players, and persistent defensive breakdowns from the collective. Sabonis was an All-Star yet again, DeRozan proved he still belongs among the league's premier midrange scorers, and Zach LaVine provided an electric scoring punch after arriving at the deadline. The tragedy was that all this individual excellence never translated into team success.

Sabonis was the team's best and most consistent player — his 19.1 / 13.9 / 6.0 line with 59.0% FG made him one of the most efficient big men in the NBA. The 41.7% from three (on low volume) added a new dimension to his game and made the Sabonis-centric DHO offense even harder to defend. LaVine's arrival injected desperately needed shooting — his 44.6% from three and 51.1% FG in 32 games gave Sacramento a legitimate perimeter weapon they'd lacked all season. Monk was the heartbeat off the bench, averaging 17.2 PPG / 5.6 APG and assuming primary ball-handling duties after Fox's departure. The concern is Murray's slight scoring regression (12.4 PPG from 14.0 the year prior) — the Kings need him to be a 15+ PPG scorer in year four.

GM Monte McNair leaned fully into the post-Fox era this summer. The headline acquisition was Dennis Schröder via sign-and-trade from Detroit on a 3-year, $44.4 million deal — a replacement-level point guard who brings veteran savvy but not the star power Fox provided. The front office supplemented with experience (Russell Westbrook, Dario Šarić) and youth (Nique Clifford, Maxime Raynaud), betting that the Sabonis-LaVine-DeRozan core can remain competitive while developing the next wave.

The Fox trade remains the defining transaction. Sacramento turned its franchise point guard into Zach LaVine (the centerpiece), Tre Jones, Zach Collins, and salary relief. It was a calculated pivot: Fox wanted out, the Kings weren't winning with the existing core, and LaVine's shooting (44.6% from three) addresses a critical need. The Schröder signing fills the PG void competently but not spectacularly — he's a proven starter averaging 13.1 PPG / 5.4 APG over his career but lacks Fox's explosiveness.

The Murray extension signals belief in the young forward's long-term trajectory. At 24, Murray is the only member of the core under 30, and the Kings are betting his 37.6% three-point shooting and defensive versatility will only improve. The draft picks — Clifford (wing defender) and Raynaud (stretch center) — are developmental plays that won't contribute immediately but address the roster's chronic lack of young talent and defensive length.

The 2025-26 Sacramento Kings are a veteran-heavy, offense-first roster trying to remain competitive in a post-Fox world. The core of Sabonis, LaVine, and DeRozan gives Sacramento three players who averaged 20+ PPG last season — a scoring trio that should keep the Kings in games. The question is whether Doug Christie, in his first full season as head coach, can fix the defense and build a coherent identity from a roster that skews old, guard-heavy, and offensively redundant.

Projected Starting Lineup

This is a scoring-first starting five with significant questions on the other end. Sabonis, LaVine, and DeRozan combined for over 63 PPG last season, and the Sabonis DHO action with LaVine as the primary beneficiary should be lethal. Schröder at the point provides stability and transition speed, while Murray at the four offers floor spacing and the team's best wing defense. The concern is stark: the perimeter defense is weak (Schröder, LaVine, and DeRozan are all below-average defenders), and the team's average age of 31.2 years makes them one of the oldest starting fives in the NBA.

Key Bench Players

The bench has Monk as its headliner — arguably the best sixth man in the league last season, his 17.2 PPG / 5.6 APG provides a scoring and playmaking bridge when the starters rest. Ellis is a critical rotation piece whose defense and shooting (37.6% from three) make him the kind of 3-and-D wing every team covets. The Westbrook signing is a low-risk, high-energy play — the former MVP is 37 and no longer a starter-caliber player, but his pace in transition and competitive fire can change the tempo of a game. Carter's sophomore development is a key subplot — if the former lottery pick can stay healthy, his defensive instincts and athleticism could earn him real rotation minutes.

Coaching & Scheme

Doug Christie enters his first full season as head coach after replacing Mike Brown midway through 2024-25. The former Kings fan-favorite inherits a fascinating challenge: an offense that already hums and a defense that's been a liability for three consecutive seasons. Christie retained Brown's foundational concepts — the Sabonis-centric dribble handoff action, the emphasis on ball movement and cutting, and the high-pace transition game — but has signaled a desire to tighten the defensive screws. The addition of Mike Woodson as associate head coach provides experienced tactical support, particularly on the defensive end. The key question: can Christie's defensive mindset (honed as a player and assistant) overcome a roster that simply lacks elite defensive personnel? Sacramento ranked 23rd in defensive rating last season, and the offseason didn't meaningfully upgrade the defense outside of Ellis and Carter's development. Christie's success will be measured less in wins and more in whether the defense moves from the bottom-8 to the middle of the pack — because if it does, the elite offense will handle the rest.

Projection systems see the 2025-26 Kings as a fringe play-in team that lost its franchise player and must rely on an aging veteran core to stay competitive. The consensus lands around 35-37 wins, a step back from last year's 40-42 but not a full-scale collapse. The range of outcomes is wide — Sacramento has enough offensive talent to surprise, but the defense and age profile could lead to a steep decline.

The 35.5 win total at BetMGM is the key number. The over requires Schröder to be a competent starting PG, LaVine to stay healthy for 65+ games, and the defense to improve from 23rd to at least 18th. The under is a bet on the Western Conference depth grinding down a roster with no true franchise player and aging legs. Sacramento's expected record last season was 42-40 based on point differential — the regression from 40 actual wins to 35.5 projected wins reflects the Fox departure more than anything else.

The Betting Angle: Sacramento at +20,000 to win the championship is dead money — this roster doesn't have a path to four playoff series wins. The +10,000 to win the Pacific Division is equally unappealing with the Lakers, Clippers, and Warriors all projected 10+ wins ahead. The real value, if it exists, is in the win total over 35.5 at +100 — Sacramento's offensive firepower (Sabonis/LaVine/DeRozan) is underrated, and if Monk continues his sixth-man dominance, 38-40 wins and a play-in berth is achievable. The under 35.5 at -120 is the sharper play, though — the defense is a known problem, the roster is old, and the West is a buzzsaw. Malik Monk 6th Man of the Year at +800 is the most attractive prop on the board.

The Pacific Division is a three-horse race at the top — and Sacramento isn't one of them. The Lakers (Dončić and LeBron) and Clippers (Kawhi, Paul George, Beal) are legitimate championship contenders, while the Warriors (Curry, Butler, Green) remain dangerous with their championship pedigree. These three teams are separated by only a few projected wins and all carry 45+ win expectations.

Sacramento occupies a clear fourth tier — competitive enough to stay in the play-in conversation but separated from the top three by 10+ wins. The silver lining is Phoenix's decline: the Suns traded Kevin Durant and are rebuilding around younger talent, which means the Kings aren't the division's basement dweller. The gap between Sacramento's 35-37 projected wins and the Lakers' 48-50 is enormous, though, and closing it requires a level of roster improvement that the offseason simply didn't provide. For now, the Kings' division goal is realistic: finish fourth, compete for the play-in, and develop the next wave of talent while the veterans keep the franchise relevant.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Kings exceed, meet, or fall short of their 35-37 win projection — and whether this post-Fox roster can stay in the playoff conversation.