San Antonio Spurs

The 2024-25 San Antonio Spurs season was supposed to be the turning point — the year Victor Wembanyama announced himself as a superstar and the franchise returned to relevance. Instead, it became a crucible. Gregg Popovich suffered a stroke in November 2024 and stepped away from coaching, with assistant Mitch Johnson assuming interim duties. Wembanyama was on a historic trajectory — 24.3 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 3.8 BPG (NBA leader) — before a blood clot (deep vein thrombosis) in his right shoulder ended his season after just 46 games in February. The Spurs finished 34-48, 13th in the Western Conference and 4th in the Southwest Division — a sixth consecutive year without playoff basketball.

The bright spots were undeniable. Stephon Castle won Rookie of the Year with a poised 14.7 PPG / 3.7 RPG / 4.1 APG campaign, showing the two-way instincts that made him the No. 4 pick. The front office executed a blockbuster trade deadline move, acquiring De'Aaron Fox from Sacramento to pair with Wembanyama — a signal that the rebuild was officially over. The offense showed flashes, posting 113.9 PPG (16th) with league-best assist numbers at 28.6 APG (6th). But the defense was a liability — a 117.2 defensive rating (25th) that cratered without Wembanyama's rim protection, resulting in a -2.8 net rating (21st).

The numbers tell a story of a team built around one generational talent that couldn't survive his absence. With Wembanyama, the Spurs were approximately 23-23 — a .500 team trending upward. Without him, they went 11-25, the defense disintegrating without its anchor. The Fox acquisition provided a late-season jolt, but there simply wasn't enough time to build chemistry. The season wasn't a failure — it was a foundation, revealing both the franchise's ceiling (Wemby + Fox is elite) and its floor (without Wemby, this roster is a lottery team).

San Antonio's 34-48 record left them well outside the play-in tournament, finishing 13th in the Western Conference. The Spurs were never in the postseason conversation after Wembanyama's February shutdown, going just 11-25 in the 36 games without their franchise cornerstone. The trade deadline acquisition of De'Aaron Fox provided hope but not enough wins — Fox and the Spurs went approximately 12-14 together in the final stretch.

This is the sixth consecutive season without playoff basketball in San Antonio — the longest drought in franchise history since their pre-David Robinson era. But unlike the tanking years of 2022-24, this absence felt circumstantial rather than structural. A healthy Wembanyama for 70+ games almost certainly pushes this team into the play-in range at minimum. The front office understands that — which is why they traded for Fox and committed $222 million to keep him. The 2024-25 season was the final chapter of the rebuild. The 2025-26 season is the beginning of the contention era.

Even in a season derailed by injuries and coaching upheaval, the individual performances told an optimistic story. Wembanyama was a top-5 MVP candidate before the blood clot — his 3.8 blocks per game led the NBA by a wide margin, and the DPOY award was his to lose (he became ineligible due to the 65-game minimum). Castle's Rookie of the Year campaign validated the front office's draft strategy, and Fox's arrival gave San Antonio its first genuine All-Star-caliber backcourt partner for Wemby.

Wembanyama's 46-game sample was otherworldly. His 24.3/11.0/3.7 line with 3.8 blocks was historically unprecedented for a 21-year-old — only Hakeem Olajuwon and Bill Russell have produced comparable defensive dominance at such a young age. The blood clot was devastating but fully treatable, and medical staff expect a complete recovery. Fox averaged 25.0/5.0/6.1 across both Sacramento and San Antonio, and his post-deadline stretch with the Spurs was electrifying — the Fox-Wemby pick-and-roll immediately looked like a top-5 two-man action in the NBA. Castle's ROY campaign was defined by defensive maturity beyond his years, even if the 28.5% three-point shooting is a clear development priority. Vassell remains the team's most reliable perimeter spacer, and Barnes provided the steady veteran presence a young locker room needs.

GM Brian Wright and the Spurs front office executed one of the most decisive offseasons in recent NBA history. The De'Aaron Fox extension — 4 years, $222.4 million — cemented the Wembanyama-Fox partnership as the franchise's foundation for the next half-decade. The No. 2 overall pick (Dylan Harper) and No. 14 pick (Carter Bryant) add elite young talent to an already-loaded core. The Kelly Olynyk trade from Washington provides stretch-five depth, and the Luke Kornet signing addresses rim protection behind Wembanyama. Chris Paul's departure to the Clippers closes the veteran bridge chapter — this roster is now fully oriented around the Wemby-Fox timeline.

The Fox extension is the single most important decision the franchise has made since drafting Wembanyama. At $222.4 million over four years, it's a massive financial commitment to a 27-year-old point guard — but Fox forced his way to San Antonio because he believes in the Wemby partnership. That kind of conviction from a borderline All-NBA player is worth paying for. The Dylan Harper selection at No. 2 adds another dynamic scoring guard to a backcourt already loaded with Castle and Fox — Harper's ability to create off the dribble and score at all three levels gives San Antonio a sixth-man weapon most contenders would kill for.

The depth moves are quietly excellent. Kelly Olynyk gives Mitch Johnson a stretch-five who can play alongside Wembanyama in big lineups or replace him in rest minutes — his career 36.4% three-point shooting on 4+ attempts per game opens the floor in ways the departing Branham and Wesley never could. Luke Kornet at 4yr/$40.7M is a bet on rim protection insurance — at 7'2" with a career 2.0 BPG per 36 minutes, Kornet ensures the defense doesn't collapse during Wembanyama's rest periods. The front office spent wisely and filled every gap around the stars.

This is the year the San Antonio Spurs stop rebuilding and start competing. The combination of Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox is the most intriguing two-man game in the NBA — a 7'4" generational two-way force paired with one of the league's fastest, most explosive point guards. Add a Rookie of the Year in Stephon Castle, a knockdown shooter in Devin Vassell, and a No. 2 overall pick in Dylan Harper, and the Spurs have assembled the most exciting young core in the Western Conference. The question isn't whether this team is talented — it's whether the talent can produce wins now.

Projected Starting Lineup

This starting five has everything. Fox provides the speed and shot creation that every elite offense needs — his 25.0 PPG and 6.1 APG make him the engine. Castle adds two-way versatility at shooting guard, capable of defending the opposing team's best perimeter player while initiating offense. Vassell is the spacer who keeps defenses honest — his 36.8% three-point shooting on 6+ attempts per game prevents teams from packing the paint against Wembanyama. Barnes at power forward is the ultimate role player — a veteran who shoots 38.2% from three, doesn't need the ball, and has won an NBA championship. And Wembanyama at center is the most unique player in basketball history — a 7'4" rim protector who shoots 35.2% from three, averages 3.8 blocks, and has legitimate MVP upside at age 21.

The Fox-Wembanyama pick-and-roll is the action that will define the 2025-26 NBA season. Fox's speed off the dribble combined with Wemby's 7'4" frame as a roll-man or pop-out three-point shooter creates an impossible defensive dilemma. If you drop coverage, Fox finishes at the rim. If you switch, Wemby gets a mismatch. If you blitz, Fox finds Wemby for an open three. This two-man game has All-Time Great ceiling — think Stockton-Malone with a 7'4" center who also blocks 4 shots a game.

Key Bench Players

The bench is deeper than it has any right to be for a team this young. Dylan Harper is the crown jewel — a No. 2 overall pick with the scoring instincts of a future starter, slotted into a sixth-man role that maximizes his shot creation without burdening him defensively. Sochan at 22 is a switchable defender who can guard 1-through-4 and provides rebounding punch (6.5 RPG last year). Olynyk is a veteran stretch-five whose 36.4% career three-point shooting keeps the floor spaced even when Wembanyama sits. Kornet ensures the rim protection doesn't vanish during Wemby's rest. Johnson brings physicality and energy scoring. This is a rotation 9-10 deep with legitimate NBA players at every slot.

Coaching & Scheme

Mitch Johnson enters his first full season as the permanent head coach, inheriting the franchise from the legendary Gregg Popovich. A Stanford product who spent nearly a decade climbing the Spurs' coaching ladder — from the Austin Spurs G-League team to NBA assistant — Johnson represents continuity, not disruption. His interim run (31-45 under devastating circumstances) earned the organization's trust, and the players have publicly embraced his leadership. Popovich remains as President of Basketball Operations, mentoring Johnson from the front office.

Schematically, Johnson inherits Pop's DNA: motion offense, switching defense, and a culture of accountability. But he brings his own wrinkles — an emphasis on pace that leverages Fox's speed, creative Wembanyama actions (DHOs, short rolls, pick-and-pop threes), and an aggressive defensive scheme built around Wemby's rim protection. The challenge is half-court offense: Fox (32.2% 3P) and Castle (28.5% 3P) are both below-average shooters from deep, so Johnson must scheme around the spacing limitations while maximizing the team's transition attack and rim pressure. If the Spurs can play at a top-10 pace while maintaining a top-10 defense anchored by Wembanyama, the wins will follow.

The projection systems see the 2025-26 Spurs as a legitimate playoff team with championship upside — a dramatic shift from the lottery projections of the past three years. The range of outcomes is one of the widest in the NBA, reflecting the extraordinary ceiling of the Wemby-Fox duo alongside the health and youth-related variance that comes with building around a 21-year-old center recovering from a blood clot.

The 44.5 win total is the sharpest number on the board. The over requires Wembanyama to play 70+ games, Fox to sustain All-Star production, and the defense to rank top-10 with Wemby anchoring it. The under is a bet on Wemby's health risk — if the blood clot recurs or limits him to 55 games, this team falls to 38-40 wins. The market is essentially pricing in two very different teams: a 50-win contender with a healthy Wemby, and a 38-win play-in team without him.

The Betting Angle: San Antonio at +600 to win the NBA championship makes them the third-shortest odds in the league behind OKC (+135) and Boston (+550). That's remarkable for a team that won 34 games last season, and it tells you everything about how the market views Wembanyama's ceiling. The win total over 44.5 is the play if you believe Wemby stays healthy — a healthy Wemby-Fox-Castle-Vassell core should push 47-50 wins in the analytics models. Wembanyama's DPOY at -250 is near-automatic if he plays 65+ games — he was the runaway favorite last year before the injury. His MVP at +1200 is the highest-upside bet on the board — if the Spurs win 50+ and Wemby averages 26/12/4 with 3.5 blocks, the narrative writes itself.

The Southwest Division is the most dangerous division in basketball — four teams with legitimate playoff aspirations and a fifth (New Orleans) that can play spoiler when Zion is healthy. Houston is the preseason division favorite after acquiring Kevin Durant, pairing him with Alperen Sengun to form a formidable frontcourt. But Fred VanVleet's season-ending injury creates a point guard void that could cost them 3-5 wins, and the Durant-Sengun pairing is unproven. Dallas is the wildcard — Cooper Flagg at No. 1 overall and Anthony Davis give them a fascinating but raw core. Memphis is a 49-win team if Ja Morant stays healthy and a 39-win team if he doesn't.

San Antonio's path to the division title runs through Houston. The Rockets have the higher projected win total (52.5 vs. 44.5), but the Wemby-Fox ceiling is higher than anything Houston can assemble. If Wembanyama plays 72+ games and earns an All-NBA selection, the Spurs have a realistic shot at 50 wins and the division crown. The more likely scenario: San Antonio finishes 2nd in the Southwest at 44-48 wins, secures a 5th-to-7th seed, and enters the playoffs as the team nobody wants to face in the first round. In the loaded West, that's a significant leap from 34-48.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Spurs become a legitimate championship contender, a solid playoff team, or fall short of the rapidly rising expectations around this franchise.