Washington Wizards

The 2024-25 Washington Wizards were, by every measurable standard, the worst team in the NBA. Their 18-64 record was the league’s worst, a franchise-low watermark that cemented their position at the very bottom of the Eastern Conference. The Wizards finished last in the Southeast Division and dead last in the league’s overall standings — a full 24 games behind the 10th-seed play-in line in the East.

The numbers were historically bad. Washington posted a 108.0 PPG (27th) and surrendered a brutal 120.4 PPG (29th), producing a league-worst -12.3 net rating (30th). The offense was the NBA’s least efficient unit at a 106.8 offensive rating (30th), shooting just 43.9% from the field (28th) and 33.5% from three (29th). The defense was no better — a 119.1 defensive rating (27th) that hemorrhaged points to virtually every opponent. The one bright spot: a 100.9 pace (4th in the NBA), meaning they at least played fast. They just played poorly in every other dimension.

The silver lining — thin as it was — came from the young players. Rookie Bub Carrington played all 82 games and averaged 9.8 PPG / 4.2 RPG / 4.4 APG, showing legitimate two-way point guard instincts that exceeded every expectation for a late first-round pick. Alex Sarr, the No. 2 overall pick, battled through a brutal shooting slump early but finished at 13.0 PPG / 6.5 RPG / 2.4 APG with elite shot-blocking and defensive instincts that flashed franchise-cornerstone upside. Bilal Coulibaly continued to develop as a versatile two-way wing. The pain was the point: Washington needed the worst record in the NBA to maximize lottery odds, and they got it.

Washington’s 18-64 record was the worst in the NBA, leaving them 24 games out of the play-in tournament and dead last in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards were never in the postseason conversation at any point during the season — they started 2-15 and never recovered, enduring multiple double-digit losing streaks throughout the year.

The absence of playoff basketball is not just expected for a rebuilding franchise — it was the stated objective. Washington’s front office, led by president Michael Winger, executed a deliberate tank that secured the league’s worst record and maximized their lottery positioning. The result: the No. 6 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft (lottery luck was unkind), which they used on Texas sharpshooter Tre Johnson. The 2024-25 season was never about winning — it was about accumulating the young talent that will eventually make winning possible.

The individual performances told two stories: Jordan Poole led the team in scoring at 20.5 PPG while playing fast and loose, and the young core — Sarr, Carrington, Coulibaly, and Kyshawn George — showed encouraging developmental signs even as the wins vanished. Kyle Kuzma was limited to just 32 games due to injuries and trade rumors, and Jonas Valanciunas provided veteran stability at center before being shut down late in the season.

Poole’s 20.5 PPG on 37.8% from three represented his most efficient season in Washington, but his defensive lapses and shot selection remained concerns. Sarr was the long-term story — his 39.4% FG was ugly, but the 7-footer’s defensive impact (1.8 BPG, elite rim protection metrics) and passing ability (2.4 APG for a center) hinted at a unique modern big man in development. Carrington was the season’s quiet revelation: a second-round pick who played all 82 games, ran the offense with poise, and set a franchise rookie record for assists. He was, by any measure, the Wizards’ most pleasant surprise and a building block going forward.

President Michael Winger continued his methodical rebuild with an offseason that prioritized youth acquisition, veteran mentorship, and future flexibility. The headline: a blockbuster three-team trade that shipped Jordan Poole to New Orleans and brought back CJ McCollum, Cam Whitmore, and draft capital. Washington also added Khris Middleton on a short-term deal — a savvy move to bring championship-caliber mentorship to the locker room without compromising the 2026 cap space that could reshape the franchise.

The Poole-for-McCollum swap is the defining move. Poole was Washington’s leading scorer but a defensive liability on a max contract. McCollum, at 33, isn’t the long-term answer, but he’s a proven scorer, floor spacer, and locker room leader who can stabilize the offense while the young core develops. More importantly, acquiring Cam Whitmore — a 21-year-old athletic wing from Houston — adds another high-upside developmental piece to the collection.

The draft haul was strong. Tre Johnson at No. 6 is an elite shot-maker who averaged 19.9 PPG on 39.7% from three at Texas — the kind of perimeter scorer Washington has desperately lacked. Will Riley at No. 21 (acquired from Utah for the No. 18 pick plus future assets) adds another wing with scoring upside. The Middleton signing is pure mentorship value — a two-time All-Star and NBA champion whose professionalism and work ethic can set the standard for a young locker room. Washington enters 2025-26 with ~$100M in projected 2026 cap space, meaning every short-term deal is designed to preserve the flexibility for a franchise-altering move next summer.

The 2025-26 Wizards are a developmental roster with veteran guardrails. The young core of Sarr, Carrington, Coulibaly, Johnson, and George will shoulder heavy minutes, while McCollum and Middleton provide stability and mentorship. This is not a team built to win — it’s a team built to learn how to win, with a clear timeline pointing toward 2026-27 as the first realistic step toward competitiveness.

Projected Starting Lineup

This starting five is a fascinating mix of raw youth and stopgap veteran production. Carrington (20), Johnson (19), Coulibaly (20), and Sarr (20) average just 19.8 years old — among the youngest starting units in NBA history. Kuzma (30) is the elder statesman and the only player in the lineup with meaningful playoff experience. The defensive upside is tantalizing: Coulibaly’s length (6’7”), Sarr’s shot-blocking (7’1”), and Carrington’s on-ball tenacity give Washington a switchable, disruptive foundation. The concern is offense: Johnson is the only plus shooter in the starting five, and if Kuzma’s efficiency doesn’t rebound from his 28.1% three-point season, the spacing will be a major problem.

Key Bench Players

The bench is deep with youth and surprisingly versatile. CJ McCollum is the most important reserve — a proven 20+ PPG scorer in his prime who can run second-unit offenses, close games, and teach the young guards how professionals operate. Middleton’s presence is about culture more than stats: a two-time All-Star and 2021 NBA champion whose standard of preparation will raise the bar for every young player on the roster. Kispert is the spacing safety valve — his 39.5% three-point shooting is elite and he should see heavy minutes in lineups that need floor spacing. Cam Whitmore is a potential breakout candidate — a 21-year-old with explosive athleticism who could earn a rotation role quickly.

Coaching & Scheme

Brian Keefe enters his second full season as head coach, and this is the year where his player development credentials will be put to the ultimate test. Keefe inherits one of the youngest, rawest rosters in the NBA and must balance short-term competitive effort with long-term developmental priorities. His system emphasizes pace (Washington was 4th in pace last season), ball movement, and defensive switching — a modern NBA approach that fits the roster’s athleticism and length. The challenge is execution: young players make mistakes, and Keefe must create an environment where those mistakes become learning opportunities rather than confidence-killers. His handling of Carrington’s development (82 games as a rookie) and Sarr’s integration suggest he has the patience and communication skills for the job. The question is whether the front office gives him enough time to see the results.

Projection systems see the 2025-26 Wizards as one of the worst teams in the NBA — a consensus bottom-three team with virtually no playoff path. The question isn’t whether Washington makes the postseason (they won’t), but whether the young core shows enough growth to justify the timeline.

The 21.5 win total is the key number. The over requires meaningful improvement from the young core AND health from the veterans — if Sarr, Carrington, and Coulibaly all take developmental leaps and McCollum stays healthy, 23-25 wins is reachable. The under is a bet on the roster being too young and too thin to improve on last year’s 18-win disaster. The gap between ESPN BPI’s projection (~17 wins) and the betting line (21.5) suggests the books are pricing in some developmental upside that the models don’t capture.

The Betting Angle: Washington at +100,000 to win the championship is the longest shot in the NBA — not a bet, a donation. The +25,000 to win the Southeast Division is dead money against Orlando and Atlanta. The real action is the win total over/under 21.5. The over case: Tre Johnson provides immediate scoring, Sarr takes a year-2 leap, and McCollum stabilizes the offense enough to steal 22-24 wins. The under case: the roster is historically young, the defense will be one of the worst in the league again, and 18-20 wins is the realistic floor. We lean under 21.5 — the East is deep enough that a rebuilding team with this little shooting will struggle to win more than 20 games.

The Southeast Division is a two-tier structure with a wide gap. At the top, Orlando is the class of the division — a legitimate conference contender with Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and the addition of Desmond Bane forming one of the East’s most dangerous trios. Atlanta has retooled aggressively around Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis, projecting for 47+ wins and a top-four seed. Miami remains competitive behind Bam Adebayo but is treading water without a clear second star.

Washington occupies the basement — and it’s not close. The gap between the Wizards’ ~20-win projection and Charlotte’s ~28 wins is significant, and the gap to Orlando’s 51+ is a chasm. But the Wizards aren’t trying to compete with Orlando in 2025-26 — they’re trying to build the foundation to compete in 2027-28 and beyond. In two to three years, the Sarr-Carrington-Johnson-Coulibaly core, supplemented by ~$100M in cap space, should be ready to challenge for the division’s third or fourth slot. For now, the goal is simply: show growth, develop the kids, and stay on the timeline.

These six players will most directly determine whether the 2025-26 Wizards show meaningful developmental progress — and whether the rebuild stays on schedule or falls behind.