Paper #2PlannedNBA
Closing Line Value Across Sports: Does CLV Predict ROI in NBA Like It Does in MLB?
Replicating the 2,682-pick MLB study on 3,708 graded NBA picks across two model versions. Does the 2.5× CLV-vs-win-rate ratio hold in basketball, where line movement is faster and public-money steam is heavier?
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Email research@oddsiq.coBuyer
NBA bettors, sportsbook traders, hedge funds, academic researchers
Effort
After May 1 (NBA closing-line backfill)
Enterprise license
Sportsbook trading desks, hedge fund quant teams — $2-5K
What's in the paper
- ~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
- Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
- Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
- Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
- Glossary + references to academic literature
Data used
Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.
| Field | Type | Source | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| pick_id | BIGSERIAL | nba_predictions_backtest | Unique identifier per graded NBA backtest pick. |
| backtest_run_id | TEXT | nba_predictions_backtest | Which backtest version produced the pick (v1: 2022–2025, v2: 2024–2025). |
| date | DATE | nba_predictions_backtest | Game date. |
| pick | TEXT | nba_predictions_backtest | Team selected by the model. |
| pick_odds | INT | nba_predictions_backtest | American odds at pick generation (entry). |
| pick_is_underdog | BOOLEAN | nba_predictions_backtest | Whether the pick was the underdog at entry. |
| closing_odds | INT | odds_snapshots (JOIN) | Closing-line American odds for the picked side, sourced from the May-1 historical backfill. |
| entry_no_vig_prob | NUMERIC(5,4) | derived | Devigged entry probability. |
| closing_no_vig_prob | NUMERIC(5,4) | derived | Devigged closing probability. |
| clv_pct | NUMERIC(6,4) | derived | Closing minus entry no-vig probability — the per-pick CLV. |
| correct | BOOLEAN | nba_predictions_backtest | Did the pick win? (graded outcome) |
| units | NUMERIC(5,3) | nba_predictions_backtest | Stake size from Kelly-derived sizing. |
| roi_per_pick | NUMERIC(6,4) | derived | Net units / units staked. |