Paper #10PlannedNBA
The Blowout Multiplier: When Big NBA Spreads Are Still Too Small
On games with closing spreads ≥ 10, final margins systematically exceed the spread by a measurable amount — quantified across 17 NBA seasons.
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What's in the paper
- ~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
- Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
- Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
- Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
- Glossary + references to academic literature
Data used
Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.
| Field | Type | Source | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| game_id | BIGSERIAL | nba_game_history | Game identifier. |
| season | INT | nba_game_history | Season year. |
| date | DATE | nba_game_history | Game date. |
| spread_close | NUMERIC(5,1) | nba_game_history | Closing spread (negative = home favored). |
| final_margin | INT | derived | home_score − away_score. |
| spread_margin | NUMERIC(5,1) | derived | final_margin − spread_close. The actual ATS edge (in points). |
| is_home_favorite | BOOLEAN | derived | True if home team was favored. |
| is_big_spread | BOOLEAN | derived | True if abs(spread_close) >= 10 (the paper’s threshold cohort). |
| fav_rest_days | INT | derived | Favorite’s rest days going in. |
| dog_rest_days | INT | derived | Underdog’s rest days. |
| fav_b2b | BOOLEAN | derived | Favorite on second night of B2B? |
| dog_b2b | BOOLEAN | derived | Underdog on second night of B2B? |