Paper #8PlannedNBA
The NBA Playoff Premium: 17 Years of Spreads, Totals, and the Rotation-Compression Effect
Using 23,118 NBA games (2008-2025) with full spreads, totals, and a regular-season-vs-playoff flag, we map exactly how postseason lines mis-adjust for tighter rotations and higher-leverage minutes.
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What's in the paper
- ~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
- Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
- Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
- Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
- Glossary + references to academic literature
Data used
Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.
| Field | Type | Source | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| game_id | BIGSERIAL | nba_game_history | Game identifier. |
| season | INT | nba_game_history | Season year (e.g. 2024 = 2023–24 season ending year). |
| date | DATE | nba_game_history | Game date. |
| regular | BOOLEAN | nba_game_history | True if regular-season game. |
| playoffs | BOOLEAN | nba_game_history | True if playoff game (regular vs playoff is the paper’s key cohort). |
| series_round | INT | derived | 1–4 (R1, R2, ECF/WCF, Finals). |
| home_team | TEXT | nba_game_history | Home team. |
| away_team | TEXT | nba_game_history | Away team. |
| spread | NUMERIC(5,1) | nba_game_history | Closing spread (negative = home favored). |
| total | NUMERIC(5,1) | nba_game_history | Closing total. |
| score_home | INT | nba_game_history | Final score, home team. |
| score_away | INT | nba_game_history | Final score, away team. |
| final_margin | INT | derived | home_score − away_score (positive = home win). |
| final_total | INT | derived | score_home + score_away (graded outcome for totals). |
| q1–q4_home/away | INT | nba_game_history | Per-quarter scores (8 columns total) for rotation-compression analysis. |