Paper #3PlannedMLB
NRFI Inefficiencies: Why First-Inning Pitchers Are the Most Mispriced Bet in Baseball
Quantifying the gap between first-inning ERA and full-season ERA across pitcher types — and the systematic over-pricing of NRFI on starters with reverse splits.
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MLB bettors, sportsbook traders, content media
Effort
3 weeks
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Sportsbooks pricing NRFI markets — $500–2K
What's in the paper
- ~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
- Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
- Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
- Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
- Glossary + references to academic literature
Data used
Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.
| Field | Type | Source | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| pitcher_id | TEXT | mlb_pitchers | MLB Stats API pitcher identifier. |
| season | INT | mlb_pitchers | Season year. |
| first_inning_era | NUMERIC(5,2) | derived from statcast | ERA computed from first-inning appearances only. |
| full_season_era | NUMERIC(5,2) | mlb_pitchers | Full-season ERA (the line books mostly price off). |
| first_vs_full_gap | NUMERIC(5,2) | derived | first_inning_era − full_season_era. The mispricing signal. |
| k_pct_first_inning | NUMERIC(5,3) | derived from statcast | Strikeout rate in first innings only. |
| bb_pct_first_inning | NUMERIC(5,3) | derived from statcast | Walk rate in first innings only. |
| gb_pct_first_inning | NUMERIC(5,3) | derived from statcast | Ground-ball rate in first innings only. |
| lhb_first_inning_woba | NUMERIC(5,3) | derived from statcast | wOBA against vs lefty hitters in the first inning. |
| rhb_first_inning_woba | NUMERIC(5,3) | derived from statcast | wOBA against vs righty hitters in the first inning. |
| market_nrfi_odds | INT | odds_snapshots | American odds quoted on NRFI for that game. |
| market_nrfi_no_vig | NUMERIC(5,4) | derived | Devigged market NRFI probability. |
| observed_nrfi_outcome | BOOLEAN | mlb_game_data | Did the first inning end scoreless? (graded outcome) |