Paper #4PlannedMLB
The 3-Run Threshold: Why MLB Total Markets Are Systematically Wrong on Low-Run Games
Books over-juice unders on totals ≤7.5 by a measurable margin. Three seasons of Statcast + closing line data show the historical bettor edge.
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Email research@oddsiq.coBuyer
MLB bettors, sportsbook traders
Effort
2-3 weeks
Sport(s)
MLB
What's in the paper
- ~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
- Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
- Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
- Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
- Glossary + references to academic literature
Data used
Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.
| Field | Type | Source | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| game_id | TEXT | mlb_game_data | MLB Stats API game identifier. |
| game_date | DATE | mlb_game_data | Date the game was played. |
| opening_total | NUMERIC(4,1) | odds_snapshots | Posted total when the line first appeared. |
| closing_total | NUMERIC(4,1) | odds_snapshots | Total at game start. |
| closing_over_odds | INT | odds_snapshots | American odds on the over at close. |
| closing_under_odds | INT | odds_snapshots | American odds on the under at close — the juice signal. |
| hold_pct | NUMERIC(5,4) | derived | Sportsbook hold (vig) on the closing total. |
| final_total_runs | INT | mlb_game_data | Combined runs at game end (graded outcome). |
| home_pitcher_era | NUMERIC(5,2) | mlb_pitchers | Starting pitcher ERA at the time of the game. |
| away_pitcher_era | NUMERIC(5,2) | mlb_pitchers | Starting pitcher ERA at the time of the game. |
| park_id | TEXT | mlb_parks | Stadium identifier (for park-factor join). |
| weather_temp_f | NUMERIC(4,1) | weather_park | Game-time temperature in Fahrenheit. |
| weather_wind_mph | NUMERIC(4,1) | weather_park | Game-time wind speed. |